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What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Yemeni cargo ship?

Settled as No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away

The Yemeni ship and crew were released unharmed on Dec 2. There was no ransom paid (it was released through negotiations within Somalia), and the priates 'got away'.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7762310.stm

Background:

Somali pirates have hijacked a Yemeni cargo ship, reported to be the 39th successful hijacking by pirates off the Horn of Africa this year.
Head of the East African Seafarers' Association Andrew Mwangura said the MV Amani was taken in the Gulf of Aden.
News of its capture comes 10 days after the giant Saudi super-tanker, the Sirius Star, was hijacked with $100m of oil and 25 crew members.
A pirate aboard the Sirus Star told the BBC the crew would not be harmed.
The man, calling himself Daybad, also said pirates had not yet negotiated with the Sirius Star's owners, but had only spoken to intermediaries who "cannot be trusted".

The ship's Polish captain told the BBC that his crew were in good shape.
Earlier, a group of tanker owners called on the UN to co-ordinate naval patrols off the coast of Somalia.
Peter Swift, head of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko) suggested that warships could begin monitoring vessels leaving Somali waters, rather than attempting to patrol the entire Gulf of Aden and a significant part of the Indian Ocean.


He said the other option was a blockade around Somalia.
However, Nato Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said on Monday that the alliance was not considering any naval blockade.
He said that such action has not been endorsed by the UN Security Council. Nato has four warships on duty in the area.
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana told a meeting of the European Union in Brussels on Monday that EU ships patrolling the area would use force to deter pirates if necessary.
"I would like to say on behalf of the European Union that the mission will have rules of engagement that will be robust, with all means to protect, to deter and it will include the use of force," he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7747620.stm


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk">www.bbc.co.uk<;/a>

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Ransom paid, ship/crew released, pirates get away
48%
No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away
9%
Pirates give up, captured
8%
Ship attacked, pirates killed/captured
10%
Ransom paid, ship/crew released, pirates captured
16%
Other outcome
9%
Activity: H$4,510
Settled as No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away on Thu 4th Dec 2008 4:20am PST

Suspend date: this Friday 11:59pm PST (2 days to go) Settlement date: Thu 4th Dec 2008 4:20am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Ransom paid, ship/crew released, pirates get away : 20%, No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away : 15%, Pirates give up, captured : 15%, Ship attacked, pirates killed/captured: 15%, Ransom paid, ship/crew released, pirates captured : 20%, Other outcome : 15%

Action history:

Created Tue 25th Nov 2008 11:02am PST by balcacer
Settlement requested Thu 4th Dec 2008 12:26am PST by monsti88: The ship was released, the crew are safe and no ransom was paid, Pirates got away.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7762310.stm
Suspended Thu 4th Dec 2008 4:13am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: settlement pending
Settled as 'Ransom paid, ship/crew released, pirates get away ' Thu 4th Dec 2008 4:19am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: The Yemeni ship and crew were released unharmed on Dec 2. There was no ransom paid (it was released through negotiations within Somalia), and the priates 'got away'.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7762310.stm
Previous action withdrawn Thu 4th Dec 2008 4:19am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: wrong option
Settled as 'No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away ' Thu 4th Dec 2008 4:20am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: The Yemeni ship and crew were released unharmed on Dec 2. There was no ransom paid (it was released through negotiations within Somalia), and the priates 'got away'.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7762310.stm

Suspend date: this Friday 11:59pm PST (2 days to go) Settlement date: Thu 4th Dec 2008 4:20am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (28)

28 predictions

4 weeks ago
monsti88 predicted No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away (H$50 at 12%)
5 weeks ago
jpkoester1 predicted No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away (H$100 at 10%)
5 weeks ago
monsti88 predicted No ransom, ship/crew released, pirates get away (H$50 at 9%)
5 weeks ago
bernardo predicted Ransom paid, ship/crew released, pirates get away (H$50 at 26%)
5 weeks ago
bernardo predicted Ship attacked, pirates killed/captured (H$50 at 14%)
more

Comments (2)

So what happened to my prediction now that was refunded?
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
It should have been returned to your 'cash' account.
posted 4 weeks ago

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