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Iran Accuses 3 of Spying for Israel and Plans to Seek Death Penalty ,will they be executed ?

Current forecast: 55% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 55% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Iran has broken a spy ring working for Israeli’s intelligence service, Mossad, and will seek the death penalty for three suspects in custody, Iran’s prosecutor general announced Tuesday.

The prosecutor general, Saeed Mortazavi, said that the suspects, members of Basij, Iran’s volunteer militia, were expected to get close to senior members of the Revolutionary Guard so they could “assassinate military scientists and blow up strategic military and missile facilities.” At a news conference covered by the semiofficial Fars news agency, he said they would be tried within a month and if convicted of “moharebeh,” crimes against Islam and the state, would be sentenced to death. Conviction on lesser charges could mean 10 years in prison, he said.
Mr. Mortazavi said Tuesday that the inquiry started six months earlier. He said evidence was found on the suspects’ laptops and satellite phones. “They also had advanced and sophisticated digital cameras for taking still shots and videos,” Fars quoted him as saying.

Assessing the strength of the government’s case is difficult. The Israeli government has declined to comment on it, but Prime Minister Ehud Olmert recently hinted at intelligence achievements, without elaborating. Mossad is widely considered one of the world’s most effective intelligence organizations, but as such, its activities are secret.
The leader of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Mohammad Ali Jafari, said Monday that its intelligence bureau had detected the spy ring.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/world/middleeast/26iran.html?ref=world


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.www.nytimes.com

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
55%
No
45%
Activity: H$4,062
Question suspends in 3 days

Suspend date: this Saturday 11:59pm PST (3 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Tue 25th Nov 2008 4:58pm PST by balcacer

Suspend date: this Saturday 11:59pm PST (3 days to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (24)

24 predictions

1 day ago
yuuu predicted Yes (H$200 at 55%)
1 day ago
zusiman predicted Yes (H$50 at 54%)
1 day ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted No (H$750 at 45%)
2 days ago
whatsup predicted Yes (H$50 at 56%)
4 days ago
jsevigny predicted Yes (H$20 at 56%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 randburg
Perhaps, this is how the Israel-Iran war starts...
posted 6 weeks ago
  2 balcacer
Gulp !
posted 6 weeks ago
Iran had just hanged a computer dude they accused of being an Israeli spy about 3 days before this happened.

But he'd been arrested in February 07. So my guess is YES...their gonna get some fresh noose's ready for these 3 little dirtbags, but it won't happen before this settles.

What a shame we don't execute Israeli spies we are always catching here in the US.
posted 1 week ago
ok so if they dont hang them prior to suspension date then it settles as a no??
posted 4 days ago
Dean.....I've flagged the admin for clarification on this because it would appear this Q will wind up treated like the Sirius Star Pirate question.

What happened there was that 'other outcome' was NOT interpreted to mean 'nothing happens'. The date for that Q has been pushed out now.

Since the settlement is NOT addressed specifically here with ' no means nothing has happened by settlement date', my gut says this one will have an extended settlement date that winds up waiting for these guys to be tried and a verdict being handed down. Based on the case I refer to above this could wind up running into late 09 or 10.

I can't get involved in this Q for this reason.
posted 4 days ago
  6 jsevigny
Do these guys really need to be tried or could Iran just hang them in retaliation for the Gaza invasion?
posted 4 days ago
what happens if they die by something other than hanging?
a cold, a bomb, the massad?
posted 4 days ago
  8 oppugner
What if only some of them are executed?
posted 3 days ago

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