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Who will be the next poet laureate in England?

Current forecast: Other (20% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Other with a probability of 20% (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Simon Armitage
10%
Wendy Cope
10%
Carol Ann Duffy
19%
UA Fanthorpe
10%
Tony Harrison
5%
Linton Kwesi Johnson
5%
Ian McMillan
11%
Adrian Mitchell
5%
Benjamin Zephaniah
5%
Other
20%
Activity: H$350
Question suspends in 18 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 18th May 12am PDT (18 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Simon Armitage: 10%, Wendy Cope: 10%, Carol Ann Duffy: 20%, UA Fanthorpe: 10%, Tony Harrison: 5%, Linton Kwesi Johnson: 5%, Ian McMillan: 10%, Adrian Mitchell: 5%, Benjamin Zephaniah: 5%, Other: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 26th Nov 2008 5:24am PST by georgethe23rd

Suspend date: Mon 18th May 12am PDT (18 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (7)

7 predictions

2 days ago
philphan1 predicted Other (H$20 at 20%)
5 days ago
peterwindlehill predicted Other (H$20 at 20%)
1 week ago
nirst predicted Ian McMillan (H$50 at 11%)
6 weeks ago
georgethe23rd predicted Ian McMillan (H$20 at 10%)
6 weeks ago
georgethe23rd predicted Tony Harrison (H$20 at 5%)
more

Comments (1)

Unlikely to be Adrian Mitchell as he died recently.
posted 1 day ago

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