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Will New York City area be host to a terrorist attack on the transit system before Jan. 7th?

Settled as No

No terrorist attack has occurred

Background:

It's time for cheer, it's time for merriment and unfortunately it's also time for a possible terrorist attack on New York's transit system this holiday season.

It's being reported that the US government has received plausible, but not corroborated threat data on a possible Al-Queda strike on New York City's transit system. The possible planned attacks are to implement the use of suicide bombers or explosives on subway or passenger rail trains. This according to a joint DHS and FBI statement.

The somewhat silly color coded threat level will not be increased because it would appear only New York is a target (Oh Joy!). This said there will be an increased security presence in an around New York this holiday season to deal with a possible threat.

As a 'almost New Yorker' (live 30 minutes out of the city and currently studying in Scotland) I pray no such attack is perpetrated this holiday season. In the extremely unfortunate event that such an attack does occur my heart goes out to the victims.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. To count as an attack, it can be a foiled one which was being implemented, but as in the case of the Glasgow airport bombing ultimately failed. It must be an attack in and around the New York City area and must occur on the transit system (metro, passenger trains, stations).

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
6%
No
94%
Activity: H$20,539
Settled as No on Today 9:39am PST

Suspend date: Sat 7th Feb 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Today 9:39am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Wed 26th Nov 2008 9:37am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Today 7:37am PST by buckeyetom: It is now Jan. 7th and nothing has happened or been reported to have happened. Question can now be settled in favor of the "NO" outcome.
Settled as 'No' Today 9:39am PST by ryanj[Admin]: No terrorist attack has occurred

Suspend date: Sat 7th Feb 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Today 9:39am PST
more info...

 

Predictions (39)

39 predictions

14 hours ago
magpie predicted No (H$1,000 at 94%)
17 hours ago
natalie predicted No (H$100 at 94%)
20 hours ago
montypropps predicted No (H$200 at 94%)
1 day ago
shackleford predicted No (H$21 at 94%)
1 day ago
pintado predicted No (H$20 at 94%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
I really, really hope the intelligence here is wrong as I'm going back to New York to visit family over the holidays...
posted 6 weeks ago
  2 skipper[Power User]
I really, really, really hope the intelligence is wrong here, as I commute into NYC every day.... o yay!
posted 6 weeks ago

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