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What will be box office take for Australia? - 3 day Weekend (Fri, Sat., Sun.)

Settled as Less than 16 Million

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Background:

The last time Baz Luhrman paired two big stars -- in a non-musical -- was in 1996's Romeo + Juliet. That film took in almost 80% of it's production cost on opening weekend alone ($11,133,231 of $14,500,000).

Australia's storied budget is reported to have been 10 times that of Romeo + Juliet: $150,000,000. Critics are mixed, the film may not have had Luhrman's full support due to studio squabbles, and the two big stars, Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman have hit or miss track records. However, there is already Oscar buzz (and open markets) about the film and its two stars.

So, considering Australia cost 10 times as much how will it's opening weekend compare? -- background from nextpaige

Synopsis: A romantic action-adventure set in northern Australia prior to World War II, ‘Australia‘ centers on an English aristocrat (Nicole Kidman) who inherits a ranch the size of Maryland. When English cattle barons plot to take her land, she reluctantly joins forces with a rough-hewn cattle driver (Hugh Jackman) to drive 2000 head of cattle across hundreds of miles of the country’s most unforgiving land, only to still face the bombing of Darwin, Australia by the Japanese forces that had attacked Pearl Harbor only months earlier. With his new film, director-writer-producer Baz Luhrmann is painting on a vast canvas, creating a cinematic experience that brings together romance, drama, adventure and spectacle.



Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Actual numbers will be used to settle this market. Those results are typically released late Monday afternoon. This market is going to use the results from Friday Nov 28th, Saturday Nov 29th, and Sunday Nov 30th

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Less than 16 Million
50%
16 Million to less than 17 Million
10%
17 Million to less than 18 Million
11%
18 Million to less than 19 Million
7%
19 Million to less than 20 Million
6%
20 Million to less than 21 Million
4%
21 Million to less than 22 Million
3%
22 Million to less than 24 Million
3%
24 Million to less than 26 Million
3%
26 Million or more
4%
Activity: H$9,267
Settled as Less than 16 Million on Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:21pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:21pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 16 Million: 5%, 16 Million to less than 17 Million: 5%, 17 Million to less than 18 Million: 15%, 18 Million to less than 19 Million: 20%, 19 Million to less than 20 Million: 25%, 20 Million to less than 21 Million: 10%, 21 Million to less than 22 Million: 5%, 22 Million to less than 24 Million: 5%, 24 Million to less than 26 Million: 5%, 26 Million or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 26th Nov 2008 10:39am PST by destry[Admin]
Changed Description Wed 26th Nov 2008 1:05pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... <br/> <br/> The last time Baz Luhrman paired two big stars -- in a non-musical -- was in 1996's Romeo + Juliet. That film took in almost 80% of it's production cost on opening weekend alone ($11,133,231 of $14,500,000).<br/> <br/> Australia's storied budget is reported to have been 10 times that of Romeo + Juliet: $150,000,000. Critics are mixed, the film may not have had Luhrman's full support due to studio squabbles, and the two big stars, Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman have hit or miss track records. However, there is already Oscar buzz (and open markets) about the film and its two stars.<br/> <br/> So, considering Australia cost 10 times as much how will it's opening weekend compare? -- background from <a href="http://www.hubdub.com/users/nextpaige"><b>nextpaige</b></a><br/> <br/> Synopsis: A romantic action-adventure set ... prior to World War II, ‘, ‘Australia‘ centers on an English aristocrat ( ... of miles of the country’s most unforgiving land, only ... romance, drama, adventure and spectacle. <.<br/> <br/> <object width="425" height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http ... www.youtube.com/v/p447zpUmbxw&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1"></param><"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/p447zpUmbxw&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1" type="application/x- ... -flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> <><br/>
Changed Description Wed 26th Nov 2008 1:06pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: ... <br/> <br/> The last time Baz Luhrman
Suspended Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Less than 16 Million' Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:21pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:21pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (75)

75 predictions

5 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted Less than 16 Million (H$250 at 48%)
5 weeks ago
jacktheseer predicted 17 Million to less than 18 Million (H$200 at 10%)
5 weeks ago
shojun predicted 18 Million to less than 19 Million (H$30 at 8%)
5 weeks ago
opie predicted 16 Million to less than 17 Million (H$20 at 11%)
5 weeks ago
cuyaya predicted 16 Million to less than 17 Million (H$20 at 10%)
more

Comments (6)

Yuk.
posted 5 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
I find Nicole Kidman supremely irritating.
posted 5 weeks ago
  3 andrewdb
I don't like the way you phrased this one Jenni, the "less than" thing is a bit odd.
posted 5 weeks ago
@andrew - Well I didn't actually write this one, destry did. But if I had, I don't think I would have changed the 'less than' language. What do you think is strange about it? What would make more sense to you?
posted 5 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
When I phrased the market options with the "less than" terminology, I did so so there wouldn't be any confusion. I probably could have done a better job with terminology. I am definitely open to suggestions to what the community things is the best way and easiest to understand way these options.
posted 5 weeks ago
  6 petefin
I am assuming we are talking USD here. Looks like the take was around $11m. The reviews are bad.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/entertainment/film/iaustraliai-has-slow-start-at-box-office/2008/11/30/1227979845521.html
posted 5 weeks ago

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