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Box Office Derby - Which of these movies will most outperform its projection for the 3 day weekend.
Settled as Bolt
Title..........................................Avg. Pred. Actual Diff
Twilight...........................................$30.3 26.4 -
Four Christmases............................$24.8 31.0 +6.2
Bolt................................................$19.0 26.5 +7.5
Australia.........................................$18.8 14.8 -
Quantum of Solace..........................$16.9 18.8 +1.9
Transporter 3...................................$15.2 12.0 -
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa...........$10.9 14.2 +4.2
Background:
This market is looking to see which of these 7 movies most outperforms its predicted volume. Listed below are the 7 movies and the predicted box office. In an event of an exact tie (highly unlikely) both winning options will be paid out.
Title..........................................Avg. Pred.
Twilight...........................................$30.3
Four Christmases............................$24.8
Bolt................................................$19.0
Australia.........................................$18.8
Quantum of Solace..........................$16.9
Transporter 3...................................$15.2
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa...........$10.9
Title..........................................Avg. Pred.
Twilight...........................................$30.3
Four Christmases............................$24.8
Bolt................................................$19.0
Australia.........................................$18.8
Quantum of Solace..........................$16.9
Transporter 3...................................$15.2
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa...........$10.9
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. Box office numbers will be based on ACTUAL results. The winning movie will be the movie that most outperforms its projections.
Settled
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Twilight |
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Four Christmases |
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Bolt |
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Australia |
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Quantum of Solace |
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Transporter 3 |
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Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa |
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Activity: H$10,840
Settled as Bolt on Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:27pm PST
Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:27pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Twilight: 15%, Four Christmases: 15%, Bolt: 15%, Australia: 15%, Quantum of Solace: 15%, Transporter 3: 10%, Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa: 15%
Action history:
Changed Description Wed 26th Nov 2008 11:16am PST by 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
destry: show details ... options will be paid out. <.<br/> Rank Title Avg. Pred. <.<br/> 1 Twilight $30.3 <<br/> 2 Four Christmases $24.8 <<br/> 3 Bolt $19.0 <<br/> 4 Australia $18.8 <<br/> 5 Quantum of Solace $16.9 <<br/> 6 Transporter 3 $15.2 <<br/> 7 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa $10.9 <<br/> <br/>
Changed Description Wed 26th Nov 2008 11:17am PST by destry: show details
destry: show details ... be paid out.<br/> Rank ...Title ............................................Avg. Pred.<br/> 1 ........Twilight $........................................$30.3<br/> 2 ........Four Christmases $.........................$24.8<br/> 3 ........Bolt $.............................................$19.0<br/> 4 Australia $
Changed Description Wed 26th Nov 2008 11:19am PST by destry: show details
destry: show details ... paid out.<br/> Rank...Title........................................................................................<b>Avg. Pred.<.</b><br/> 1........Twilight........................................$...........................................$30.3<br/> 2........Four Christmases.........................$............................$24.8<br/> 3........Bolt.............................................$................................................$19.0<br/> 4 ........Australia $.........................................$18.8<br/> 5 ........Quantum of Solace $..........................$16.9<br/> 6 ........Transporter 3 $...................................$15.2<br/> 7 ........Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa $...........$10.9<br/> <br/>
Changed Description Wed 26th Nov 2008 11:21am PST by destry: show details
destry: show details ... will be paid out.<br/> Rank...Title............................................<..........................................<b>Avg. Pred.</b><br/> 1........Twilight...........................................$...........................................<b>$30.3<</b><br/> 2........Four Christmases............................$............................<b>$24.8<</b><br/> 3........Bolt................................................$................................................<b>$19.0<</b><br/> 4........Australia.........................................$.........................................<b>$18.8<</b><br/> 5........Quantum of Solace..........................$..........................<b>$16.9<</b><br/> 6........Transporter 3...................................$...................................<b>$15.2<</b><br/> 7........Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa...........$...........<b>$10.9<</b><br/> <br/>
Changed Question text Thu 27th Nov 2008 7:19am PST by 
jenniandboys
: show details
jenniandboys: show details ... - Which of these movies will most outperform its projection for the
Changed Description Thu 27th Nov 2008 8:35pm PST by destry: show details
destry: show details ... options will be paid out.<. <br/> Title..........................................<b>Avg. Pred.</b><> <br/> Twilight...........................................<b>$30.3</b><> <br/> Four Christmases............................<b>$24.8</b><> <br/> Bolt................................................<b>$19.0</b><> <br/> Australia.........................................<b>$18.8</b><> <br/> Quantum of Solace..........................<b>$16.9</b><> <br/> Transporter 3...................................<b>$15.2</b><> <br/> Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa...........<b>$10.9</b><> <br/> <br/>
Changed Settlement info Thu 27th Nov 2008 8:35pm PST by destry: ... will be the movie that most outperforms its projections.
destry: ... will be the movie that most outperforms its projections.
Suspended Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Bolt' Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:27pm PST by jenniandboys: Title..........................................Avg. Pred. Actual Diff
Twilight...........................................$30.3 26.4 -
Four Christmases............................$24.8 31.0 +6.2
Bolt................................................$19.0 26.5 +7.5
Australia.........................................$18.8 14.8 -
Quantum of Solace..........................$16.9 18.8 +1.9
Transporter 3...................................$15.2 12.0 -
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa...........$10.9 14.2 +4.2
jenniandboys: Title..........................................Avg. Pred. Actual Diff
Twilight...........................................$30.3 26.4 -
Four Christmases............................$24.8 31.0 +6.2
Bolt................................................$19.0 26.5 +7.5
Australia.........................................$18.8 14.8 -
Quantum of Solace..........................$16.9 18.8 +1.9
Transporter 3...................................$15.2 12.0 -
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa...........$10.9 14.2 +4.2
Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:27pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Nov 2008 5pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (48)
48 predictions
rogi
predicted Four Christmases (H$20 at 32%)
ryanj
predicted Twilight (H$100 at 30%)
bigh165
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Twilight (H$71 at 25%)
predicted Four Christmases (H$1,000 at 20%)
joaoxxx
predicted Twilight (H$200 at 32%)
newsiebri
chull
predicted Twilight (H$100 at 46%)
predicted Four Christmases (H$10 at 7%)
predicted Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (H$24 at 16%)Comments (0)
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score: 10
Herald Sun 5 weeks ago
Article from: AAP Font size: Decrease Increase : Email : Print THE much-hyped Baz Luhrmann movie Australia has flopped at the US box office on its opening day, according to reports. Figures quoted from US entertainment newspaper Variety in the Herald Sun
score: 10
Chicago Tribune 5 weeks ago
The following is a snapshot of how Chicago-area moviegoers compared with their national counterparts in viewing the most recent movie releases. LOCAL TOP 10 NATIONAL TOP 10Twilight$1,653,884 Twilight$69,637,740 Quantum Of Solace$748,114 Quantum Of
score: 10
National Post 5 weeks ago
Movies, Bob Thompson Since Twilight dawned to major business its opening weekend, expectations are strong for the teen vampire action flick the second time around. So far, the movie has earned an extra US $10
score: 10
Washington Post 6 weeks ago
but all in an understated style. There is drinking, smoking, an implied affair, racial slurs and rare profanity. 'Bolt' (PG). If it weren't for a very funny hamster and his exercise ball, 'Bolt' would not make much of a blip on the radar screen. It's too
score: 10
Reuters UK 6 weeks ago
gain traction in the race to February's Oscars. Wednesday's debut of films such as relationship comedy 'Four Christmases,' action-packed 'Transporter 3' and epic romance 'Australia,' as well as Oscar hopeful 'Milk,' provide the spark for six more weeks
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