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How many 'balloons" will not finish the Macy's Day Parade in NY?

Settled as They all make it to the Reviewing Stand

Haven't found any indication of balloons dying along the way... Congrads to another successful year Snoopy :)

Background:

Every Thanksgiving Day, the Macy's parade in NYC is watched by millions of viewers. Every year hundreds of giant balloons are seen floating down the avenue. Once in a while some of these giant balloons "never get off the ground" "get off the ground but do not finish the parade for a variety of reasons: carshing, deflating, hitting light posts tearing and mainimg people" or "they are grounded because the wind is severe"
The question is How many of the giant balloons scheduled to be in this years parade will not make it to the revewing stand?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

1 giant balloon
6%
2 to 3 giant balloons
5%
4 or more giant balloons
3%
They all make it to the Reviewing Stand
84%
All balloons are grounded due to weather/etc
3%
Activity: H$9,008
Settled as They all make it to the Reviewing Stand on Mon 1st Dec 2008 5:42am PST

Suspend date: Thu 27th Nov 2008 1am PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 5:42am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 27th Nov 2008 1am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 1 giant balloon: 20%, 2 to 3 giant balloons: 25%, 4 or more giant balloons: 15%, They all make it to the Reviewing Stand: 25%, All balloons are grounded due to weather/etc: 15%

Action history:

Created Wed 26th Nov 2008 11:34am PST by deanthoreau
Suspended Thu 27th Nov 2008 1am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 30th Nov 2008 1:46pm PST by randburg: It has been more than four days now. There has been no mention of any problems with baloons not completing the parade. Here is a critical review of the parade:

http://popwatch.ew.com/popwatch/2008/11/macys-thanksgiv.html
Settled as 'They all make it to the Reviewing Stand' Mon 1st Dec 2008 5:42am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Haven't found any indication of balloons dying along the way... Congrads to another successful year Snoopy :)

Suspend date: Thu 27th Nov 2008 1am PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 5:42am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 27th Nov 2008 1am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (33)

33 predictions

5 weeks ago
ushuaia predicted They all make it to the Reviewing Stand (H$100 at 84%)
5 weeks ago
greyarea predicted 1 giant balloon (H$10 at 6%)
5 weeks ago
maartenkaas predicted They all make it to the Reviewing Stand (H$100 at 83%)
5 weeks ago
2beme predicted They all make it to the Reviewing Stand (H$50 at 84%)
5 weeks ago
2beme predicted They all make it to the Reviewing Stand (H$50 at 84%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 ladylara
What a fun question! My son participated a few years, marching with a chorus of other high schoolers from around the US. One favorite memory is the year the huge purple Barney balloon went down in front of the kids- They cheered as that obnoxious toddlers' character "died" in a nose dive. A fitting demise as seen through a teens' eyes!
posted 6 weeks ago

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