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Will President Obama meet President Raul Castro in 2009 ?

Current forecast: 66% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 66% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Sean Penn:
When it was my turn, I said, "Mr. President (Chavez), it is very important for us to meet with the Castros. It is impossible to tell the story of Venezuela without including Cuba--and impossible to tell the story of Cuba without the Castros."
When it was my turn, I said, "Mr. President, it is very important for us to meet with the Castros. It is impossible to tell the story of Venezuela without including Cuba--and impossible to tell the story of Cuba without the Castros." Chávez promised us that he would call President Castro the moment he got on his plane and ask on our behalf but warned us that it was unlikely big brother Fidel would be able to respond so quickly, as he was doing a lot of writing and reflecting these days, not seeing a lot of people.
Would Castro accept an invitation to Washington to meet with a President Obama, assuming he won in the polling, only a few weeks away? Castro becomes reflective. "This is an interesting question," he says, followed by a rather long, awkward silence. Until: "The US has the most complicated election process in the world.
What about Guantánamo?" I ask. "I'll tell you the truth," Castro says. "The base is our hostage. As a president, I say the US should go. As a military man, I say let them stay." Inside, I'm wondering, Have I got a big story to break here? Or is this of little relevance? It should be no surprise that enemies speak behind the scenes. What is a surprise is that he's talking to me about it. And with that, I circle back to the question of a meeting with Obama. "Should a meeting take place between you and our next president, what would be Cuba's first priority?" Without a beat, Castro answers, "Normalize trade."
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081215/penn/3

Mexican newspaper:
http://www.reforma.com/internacional/articulo/473/945222/


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.www.thenation.com, www.reforma.com

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
66%
No
34%
Activity: H$3,368
Question suspends in 51 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 70%

Action history:

Created Wed 26th Nov 2008 4:27pm PST by balcacer

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)
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Predictions (22)

22 predictions

5 days ago
nacho predicted Yes (H$20 at 66%)
1 week ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$800 at 33%)
3 weeks ago
kevinvuichard predicted Yes (H$20 at 68%)
4 weeks ago
conlon1 predicted No (H$50 at 33%)
4 weeks ago
balcacer predicted No (H$20 at 33%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 balcacer
Thanks deanthoreau !
posted 6 weeks ago
I think Obama will meet with Castro (one or both) but not in 2009; Cuba has nothing it can offer in the way of repairing our economy...China, Japan, Canada, India, Russia have some money we need to borrow to pay for all these bailouts. Cuba can not import enough USA goods to make a tiny dent in boosting the economy. So after a year of trying to work on the finances, then Obama will have time to do other things like meet with various leaders who we need to make amends with.
posted 6 weeks ago

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