What will be mumbai terror final death toll?
On Thursday evening, Mumbai time, the death toll was already being reported as over 100. Yet the situation was ongoing at the two hotels and the Jewish center. Not only were subsequent casualties possible, but there was no way at that time for the authorities to determine how many had died within those three locations. The initial likelihood on this question for more than 160 deaths was just 10%, and there was no explanation given for this , so the question is voided on the basis of unreasonable initial likelihoods as well as duplicating a previous question on the death toll.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Voided
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101-120 |
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121-140 |
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141-160 |
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more than 161 |
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Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Initial likelihoods: 101-120: 40%, 121-140: 30%, 141-160: 20%, more than 161: 10%
Action history:
Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
more info...
Predictions (92)
92 predictions
Comments (31)
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http://my.att.net/s/editorial.dll?fromspage=ch/c.htm&categoryid=&only=y&bfromind=7770&eeid=6234852&_sitecat=1505&dcatid=0&eetype=article&render=y&ac=3&ck=&ch=ne
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/29/world/asia/29mumbai.html?hp
Absolutely. Prediction markets can help in estimating the number of dead or injured in an incident, potentially helping with the allocation of limited emergency resources.
We can appreciate that the line on 'what is too sick or perverted' to go on hubdub is difficult to draw. The contentious topic of death pools has been around almost as long as our site, and you'll find well reasoned arguments for both allowing and banning such questions on forums and other comment pages on the site. As death is a topic that, whether pleasant or not, is daily reported in the news it's inevitable that users will draw on such topics to create news prediction markets. I think the discomfort most people feel with prediction markets related to death - as opposed to simply reading a story about the very same topic - is that people seemingly engage with death to gain profit, and perhaps this trivializes the tragedy of the situation. If our market were simply a poll, with no financial gain - virtual or not - for the respondents, its unlikely that it would be so unpatalable.
However, I think there's a crucial difference between wanting something to happen and predicting something will happen. If I say I think more than 160 people died in these attacks, personally I'm not hoping or wishing that more people die so that I am right, it's merely an opinion based on information available at the time. I can't speak for all our members, but I do actually think that if members are in their heart hoping that more people die so they can make virtual money, then they are sick and something is wrong with them (hence the deleting of your comment, capt_chaos, joke or not).
So I think as a website we have a different perspective from our users. Our business is creating prediction markets, as opposed to the psychology of our members who are often engaged in playing the website as a game. I am interested in the graph that ends up being created, not whether X won or lost $H1000, and so I tend to tolerate these markets objectively - they're macabre, but are indeed very topical issues of discussion. Who knew how large the scale of these terror attacks was until the death toll kept rising and rising?
Conversely, if we did indeed ban all mention of death from this website, are we going to stop unstable people continuing to hope - for whatever sick reason - that people die and suffer? Will less people in the world actually die if we don't predict they will? Arguably not.
Best thing to do from a karma perspective is not to play these markets if you have ethical issues with them.
Ultimately I chose to view Hubdub as an online game where I can mindlessly make inane predictions in the hope of gaining virtual profits to satisfy a personal gambling addiction - I say "mindlessly" as I feel that I, and probably the vast majority of Hubdubbers, have very little real knowledge on most of these questions, and we're just making predictions based on what limited information we can gather.
Other than that, I won't get too involved and I won't make too many grand sweeping statements about life, terrorism, ethics etc etc, but I would like to say that perhaps if people like us who are lucky enough to sit in front of computers and wring our hands about trivial issues like internet etiquette spent a bit more time protesting some of the inequities in the world (many of which are rigidly enforced by our Western governments), then there is a chance that horrific events such as Mumbai may not be an attractive option for individuals who clearly feel disenfranchised.
But then again... maybe I'm wrong??
Whatever the case, I hope you noticed that I did not fall into the trap of labelling the perpertators of Mumbai as "terrorists" - who are we to judge whether they are good or bad? Check your history books and you may find that often, history reveals that one mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter!!
And for one final parting shot, let me just add that I am thankful for America to allow me internet access from my 2x2 cell at Gitmo...
This issue is so deeply complex, do you really think you do it any justice by grabbing at jingoistic statements about beheadings (oh - you missed that one!) and stonings? I don't profess to have the solution as I would not have the gall to suggest that I have a full understanding of the issue. It is just such a shame that there are deluded world leaders who think they do, and they encourage the jingoism's to warrant their wanton policies and wars.
I believe the leadership the USA has given the world since WW2 is, in my humble opinion, partially responsible for a lot of the miseries that befall us today.
If these Islam baddies are so bad, why did America waste so much time, money and energy fighting in Vietnam in the 1960's & 1970's? Is it perhaps that communist North Vietnam were the baddies in black back then, and maybe the Islamics were only in a greyish colour at that stage? Stranger yet, my monochrome glasses would tend to suggest that by the 1980's the Islamic guys were wearing a sparkling white coloured uniform in the fight against Russia - but then again wasn't that uniform supplied by America? I won't even comment about the subtle nuance in monchromity during the Iran/Iraq war in the 1980's!!
Basically what I am saying is, this issue is far to big for mere mortals like us to comment on - and there are all sorts of horror stories inflicted by all sides (is India an innocent victim?) - however, should not each man (and woman) have the right to self-determination? Do not all men (and women) have the same basic needs and wishes? It is such a shame that religious differences can be used to divide mankind, especially as it appears that most religions have a common thread of decency and understanding etc etc.
Like I say - this issue is too big for me... I'll leave you in peace now brothers and sisters!
"Do not all men (and women) have the same basic needs and wishes?" Obviously not. There is pure evil, and we saw it in Mumbai. Not only do these Islamic terrorists not have the same basic needs and wishes as normal people, their needs and wishes are the opposite. They seek out and revel in death and destruction.
After the terrorist, there is no lower slime than their apologists who believe that the US and other countries are responsible for the actions of these terrorists. Oh, sorry, there I go again. I fell into that "trap of calling them terrorists." I guess I don't know what else to call them.
However, to label someone as "pure evil" is surely a bit extreme - do you think these "murderous scum" were born that way with some inherent murderous streak? Is it not worthy of consideration to try and understand that perhaps it is possible that some misery they have suffered through their life may have caused them to become "murderous scum"?
I'm not an apologist for terrorists, but terrorism takes many forms - does a B52 dropping bombs from high altitude cause terror? I don't know... ask some poor schmuck from Laos whose only crime was being in a country next to a country that a superpower has an issue with! (oh wait... maybe they weren't poor schmucks, maybe they were dastardly VC "murderous scum" and the pilot spotted them from 35,000 feet and got them with some good old fashioned pinpoint carpet bombing?).
Like I say, I'm not an apologist, or a religious nut, or a raving commie... I'm just an ordinary guy who knows that there is always two sides to every story, and that desperate people/animals can do desperate things. For example, I know if I kick my dog he will bite me... so I then have to choose between kicking him harder so he 'learns', or not kicking him at all. Generally I find if I leave him alone he won't bite me too much! Conversely if I kick the living daylights out of him he will 'learn', but he might not have any teeth left, or be able to walk again... I just need to remember to be careful when his young pups grow up because, after watching their father kicked over, they may be a bit resentful when they get older and stronger! Or perhaps they were just born "pure evil"? (I know it's a crude analogy and a very simplistic one, but hopefully you follow the logic).
We can not subjugate people (willingly or otherwise), then complain when they retaliate!
I totally agree! Nicely stated.
These people wear no uniform, carry no flag, have no governing body, no stated goals except to deliver death and destruction to innocent people. They can't even agree among themselves what their objectives are - hardly a year goes by without them killing each other on their "haj" to mecca. There is no "them" to negociate with - witness how Isreal repeatedly comes up with some "peace accord" or other, and the rockets don't stop heading toward Isreal, (they might slow down for a while)
This is a terrorist - he peddles terror... exports it by the truckload, and has been known to blow himself up experimenting with new methods of delivery.
A freedom fighter has a stated goal with a love of life and liberty, a flag & (often) a uniform, however tattered it may be. In democratic countries such as Israel, India, and the Philippians, the need for the freedom fighter has pretty much disappeared - a vote and a voice is all that is necessary to effect change in a peaceful & orderly way.
Chaos, as I said, I'm a "simpleton." If it walks like a terrorist, talks like a terrorist, and indiscriminately murders like a terrorist, it is one. Those who make excuses for these murdering scum, search for moral relativity and try to rationalize what they do, are terrorist apologist and enablers, who are not much better than the terrorist. If we're going beyond the simple, these apologists are ideologues who have been attracted to, or are practitioners of left wing propaganda, which makes them blind to the obvious truth that stares the rest of us "simpletons" right in the face. I find it hard to imagine that deep down most of you really believe the tripe that spews from your mouths. If you do, perhaps you could fulfill your life's mission by joining some radical organization to "help" these "oppressed" peoples.
So it is okay to deliver death and destruction so long as you wear a uniform & wave a flag? Just as well... because there have been some notable uniform clad, flag waving, death and destruction spreading delivery men over the years... I am relieved to know that they are okay!
You guys just don't get it do you?
You carry on like these "terrorists" have been at it for ever, and as if they have chosen to bomb & kill just for fun... have you ever considered that they have no democratic voice, no self-determination and they have no other choice but to resort to violence? My simple take on it is that they are retaliating at years and years of oppression from colonial or imperial forces.
If Russian troops invaded America tomorrow and started giving America the 1945 Berlin treatment (ask any elderly German woman how much fun that was), would all the proud American patriots lie down like dogs and take it? No way - they would rise up and strike back where and whenever possible - the Russians would of course label them all as "terrorists" and do their utmost to squash them all. I guess the irony is (and I realise most Americans struggle with the concept of irony - Google it dudes!), Fox News would by then be controlled by Russian media interests (or perhaps Mr Murdoch would just turn and play ball with his new puppet masters) and most insular Americans would probably believe that they were terrorists!!
The world is a big place my friends, and you may one day realise that other countries and other people have different opinions. You may also realise that many people in this big world don't always agree with the strong arm tactics of America. You may also come to realise that there is a considerable resentment towards America - not necessarily the generally good people of America, but more towards the intrusive foreign policies of American governments and also towards the shenanigans your covert agencies get up to.
To pretend America has been innocent all along, and to wonder why Sept 11 occured, is akin to German residents wondering why Allied bombers were bombing their towns night after night back in 1944/5.
Does that make Sept 11 right? - no! Was the bombing of Dresden in Feb 1945 right? - no! Was the dropping of two atomic bombs on cilivians in Japan in Aug 1945 right? - no! However, on the flip side were the Japanese right to butcher & mutilate their way through the Pacific - NO WAY! Was Nazi Germany right to engage in warfare and genicide - NO WAY! So now connect the simple dots, and ask yourself has America been right in its dealing with the Islamic/Muslim world since 1945? Not to mention American dealings in Chile, Cuba, Vietnam, Haiti, El Salvador, Serbia, Somalia etc etc???
But let us not just focus on the good ole US of A... do the French have clean hands from their dealings in Algeria, Congo, Morroco, Noumea etc etc??? Do the British have clean hands from their dealings in the Falklands/Argentina and their former colonies? Does Russia have clean hands over its dealings in its former states, Eastern Eurpoe, Angola, Afghanistan etc etc? Does India have clean hands over their dealings in Kashmir? Does Iran have clean hands over their dealings in Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan etc etc? Does Australia have clean hands over its dealing in East Timor? So on, so on and so on...
Of course the answer is that we all have blood on our hands to varying degrees, and I as a fat lazy Westerner leading my oppulent lifestyle is partially responsible as well! However, is it not simple to deduce that further mindless retaliation is not the answer?
I guess when the oil in the Middle East finally runs out, the West will finally disengage from that theatre, and then the carnage will really unfold as all the puppet regimes come crumbling down (think Saudi Arabia, Iraq etc) and hopefully with the passage of time the wounds of the past will heal.
I again state that I am not an apologist for any terrorist... but I am also not a person who is ignorant of history and the dealings of powerful sovereign states.
I will tell you what I am though - I am however a fervant believer in the rule of law which is the very foundation that our great Western civilisation is built on! However with the GW Bush regime I have seen those very foundations undermined with illegal invasions, countless civilian deaths, illegal "renditions", illegal torture, and illegal incarceration. Perhaps the worst crime of the Bush regime has been the denial of basic Habeus Corpus rights to thousands of individuals.
I can only ask you, drzinternet, and you, notablenotices, if you were illegally rendered in the middle of the night, would you not expect the rule of law to come to your rescue? If so, how can you stand by and allow the American government to deny other human beings the same basic right - regardless of their alledged crimes? Just because a man is labelled a "terrorist" does not automatically deny him the chance to clear his name - last time I checked the mighty American Constitution (and I say this in all seriousness) it clearly laid out a seperation of powers doctrine, to protect the illegal abuse of power by any branch of the greatest democracy on earth! For any American individual to stand by and watch the Bush regime undermine the basic principles of law, and to breach the American Constitution, then that American individual is either an imbecile or a traitor! Perhaps he could even be labelled a terrorist?
I seriously believe history will come to judge the America of 2000 to 2008 (it's President, Congress and the people who voted them into power, and supported it) as one of the darkest periods of American history. It may even eventually be recognised as on a similar footing to the Germany of 1933 to 1945!
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana.
I'm tempted to invoke Godwins Law on this discussion.
You carry on like these "terrorists" have been at it for ever, and as if they have chosen to bomb & kill just for fun... have you ever considered that they have no democratic voice, no self-determination and they have no other choice but to resort to violence? My simple take on it is that they are retaliating at years and years of oppression from colonial or imperial forces.
I again state that I am not an apologist for any terrorist... but I am also not a person who is ignorant of history and the dealings of powerful sovereign states. I am however a fervant believer in the rule of law which is the very foundation that our great Western civilisation is built on! However with the GW Bush regime those very foundations have been undermined with illegal invasions, countless civilian deaths, illegal "renditions", illegal torture, and illegal incarceration. Perhaps the worst crime of the Bush regime has been the denial of basic Habeus Corpus rights to thousands of individuals.
I seriously believe history will come to judge the America of 2000 to 2008 (it's President, Congress and the people who voted them into power, and supported it) as one of the darkest periods of American history. It may even eventually be recognised as on a similar footing to the Germany of 1933 to 1945!
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana.
I feel that we can't have a reasonable discussion without showing real facts. Let's just look at the "work" terrorists have done in a period of seven days. Notice the locations, and the victims. This is pure evil:
But when american citizens bombed oklahoma..it is and continues to be referred to as the oklahoma bombing..not the Terrorism in Oklahoma.
When we send the cia in to countries to disrupt their governments so we can get a better deal on bana fields,,,land to grow our beef, or farm our fish..or dump our toxic waste it is called "liberation"
when anyone else in the world does it it is called terrorism....I find the contrast...interesting.
I also find the void of this question to be.....interesting as well. and the final death toll was 178 if anyone really cares how many lives will no longer be able to touch the life of another.
I understand that you say you're not a terrorist apologist. I have to wonder then what it is you might call someone who rationalizes and makes excuses for the terrorist slaughter of scores of innocent civilians. Your hatred of Bush does nothing for your pro-terrorist argument and to call him a Nazi, (you were right jimocles) is absurd. Is it just me, or is there something wrong with a reasoning process that will condemn Bush as being as bad as a Nazi, and then going and defending a group of terrorists who just got through butchering almost 200 innocent people?
the point you, and a lot of your compatriates, seem to struggle with is that there is killing inflicted by all sides. You all harp on when there is a "terrorist" killing as if the Bush regime has led a troup of Girl Scouts through Afghanistan & Iraq handing out flowers and have never hurt a fly! Okay, granted a few bad guys were "smoked", but what about the unlucky "collateral damage"?? Just bad luck for them if the killers were the good guys in white I guess... Fox News doesn't shed any crocidile tears for them!
Maybe you can get together with Baghdad Bob and come up with some statistics for how many beheadings of innocent people were commited by the coalition "terrorists" that you are naming. How many suicide bomb attacks were commited by coalition forces? How about kidnappings? or explosive devices set in nightclubs & hotels?
I think that the fact we have gone 7 years without a major terror attack in the United States shows that, while you have been bashing our President, and demeaning our troops, these people have been quietly doing their job and keeping us safe. They get a big THANK YOU from me :-)
If you re-read all the subsequent comments and still can't grasp the basic concept of hypocrisy, then I can only suggest that to be ignorant of one's ignorance is indeed the malady of the ignorant.
But what the heck... don't fight it... because the nirvana of ignorance is bliss! Just ask any Islamic/Muslim terrorist that is happy to martyr themselves to get into heaven with all those virgins!! It is the ignorance on all sides that fuels the killings on all sides.
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