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Gold- 600 or 1000 First?

Current forecast: Gold hits 1000 first (79% chance7%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Gold hits 1000 first with a probability of 79% (down 7% in last 1 day)

After peaking in March around 1000, gold prices slid down to almost 700 a few weeks ago. What will be in store for this "store of value" in 2009?


Settlement details: Based upon hitting the number intraday on http://www.kitco.com/.

 
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Gold hits 1000 first
79%
Gold hits 600 first
6%
Gold does neither
15%
Activity: H$40,760
Question suspends in 51 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 1am PST (51 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Gold hits 1000 first: 50%, Gold hits 600 first: 35%, Gold does neither: 15%

Action history:

Created Thu 27th Nov 2008 10:43am PST by drzinternet

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 1am PST (51 weeks to go)
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Predictions (133)

133 predictions

1 hour ago
rogerkni predicted Gold hits 1000 first (H$2,000 at 74%)
1 hour ago
craig814 predicted Gold hits 1000 first (H$50 at 69%)
2 hours ago
bobdevine predicted Gold does neither (H$20 at 23%)
2 hours ago
tpillon predicted Gold does neither (H$100 at 22%)
2 hours ago
adammccormicks predicted Gold does neither (H$20 at 21%)
more

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