Home Hubdub logo
 
Net worth: H$1,000
Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's virtual currency, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
PoliticsSportEntertainmentWorldBusinessTechnologyScienceGeneral

Will Canada have its first coalition government in History by January 1 2009?

Settled as No

This is now a virtual impossibility with the proroguing of parliament. There are no signs of any attempt to contest the Governor-General's decision in the next 3-4 weeks, so this can settle as No.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/harper-jean.html

Background:

Former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien and former New Democrat leader Ed Broadbent are working behind the scenes to broker a deal that could see the two parties form a coalition government, CTV News has learned. The urgent and high-level negotiations began Thursday night after the Liberals and NDP -- along with the Bloc Quebecois -- rejected Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's economic update.

"Under this deal the Liberals would form the government, the NDP would sit in it with cabinet seats and the Bloc Quebecois would support this new NDP-Liberal coalition from outside the government," said CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife.

Category Editor Note (Nov 30): As one of our astute players has informed us, the possible Canadian coalition government would not be the first in history. The Union Government (1917-1920) was a coalition of members from various parties. However, the party ran under a single banner, and was not an official coalition of official parties, which is what the proposed coalition of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois would be.

For people not familiar with this sudden possibility in Canadian affairs, a little background. The Conservatives have a minority government with a few seats short of the 50% required to pass bills. A recent economic bill, which angered the opposition parties for various reasons, was put forward by the government. It's a special kind of vote, called a confidence vote, which triggers a collapse of the government if it fails. This triggers a decision by the Governor-General as to whether an alternative government can be formed, and if not, an election is called. The 3 main opposition parties, who together would have enough seats to form a coalition majority government, have announced that they have agreed to construct such a government if or when the bill fails.

The Conservatives have very recently removed some of the contentious issues from the bill (economic update), but the opposition parties say they will still defeat the update because it does not contain sufficient economic stimulus measures related to the current global financial crisis.

For more details:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5g2ffQ8sh8_47DOteJ8D0updkuLNw
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/546135
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081129.COALITION29/TPStory/National

Category Editor Clarification (Dec 4): An astute player has informed me that there are three possible events that might be used to settle this as a Yes. The first is the Governor-General offering government to the coalition and it being accepted. The second is any swearing in event(s) that are required. And the third involves the first sitting of Parliament with a coalition as the official government.

Because of the time-constraint in the question, this is not just a matter of when to settle, but also determines "how" to settle. To prevent arguments about such technical matters in advance, I'm ruling that the question will settle as Yes if the offer is made by the GG and accepted by the end of the year.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
24%
No
76%
Activity: H$34,954
Settled as No on Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:47am PST

Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:47am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Fri 28th Nov 2008 8:22am PST by storekeeperathscm
Changed Description Sun 30th Nov 2008 2:14am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: show details
... Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife.<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Note:</b> As one of our astute players has informed us, the possible Canadian coalition government would not be the first in history. The Union Government (1917-1920) was a coalition of members from various parties. However, the party ran under a single banner, and was not an official coalition of official parties, which is what the proposed coalition of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois would be.<br/> <br/> For people not familiar with this sudden possibility in Canadian affairs, a little background. The Conservatives have a minority government with a few seats short of the 50% required to pass bills. A recent economic bill, which angered the opposition parties for various reasons, was put forward by the government. It's a special kind of vote, called a confidence vote, which triggers a collapse of the government if it fails. This triggers a decision by the Governor-General as to whether an alternative government can be formed, and if not, an election is called.<br/> <br/> The Conservatives have very recently removed some of the contentious issues from the bill (economic update), but the opposition parties say they will still defeat the update because it does not contain sufficient economic stimulus measures related to the current global financial crisis.<br/> <br/> For more details:<br/> http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5g2ffQ8sh8_47DOteJ8D0updkuLNw<br/> http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/546135<br/> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081129.COALITION29/TPStory/National<br/>
Suspended Thu 4th Dec 2008 10:31am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: pending possible settlement
Settlement requested Thu 4th Dec 2008 6pm PST by joaoxxx: Parliament suspended before no-confidence vote, and a new budget will be presented on January 27, so we should expect no new government until that date -- http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE4B34BC20081204
Settlement requested Thu 4th Dec 2008 6:04pm PST by storekeeperathscm: now that the House of commons has been shut down until the end of janurary 2009 there no chance that the coalition can will take power before the New year. This question should be settled as no.
Thanks for time.
storekeeperathscm
Settled as 'No' Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:47am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: This is now a virtual impossibility with the proroguing of parliament. There are no signs of any attempt to contest the Governor-General's decision in the next 3-4 weeks, so this can settle as No.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/harper-jean.html

Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:47am PST
more info...

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

4 weeks ago
derekkraan predicted Yes (H$250 at 25%)
5 weeks ago
zollernberg predicted No (H$500 at 54%)
5 weeks ago
matthelm predicted Yes (H$500 at 46%)
5 weeks ago
zollernberg predicted No (H$100 at 54%)
5 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted Yes (H$4 at 48%)
more

Comments (3)

So, does the Union Government during WWI mean nothing?
posted 5 weeks ago
A coalition with the Bloc?? What is wrong with people. Conservative buffoonery aside... the bloc?? Anyways, I think that at worst, that parliament will recess before anything happens and we will have to wait until Jan. At least that is what I am hoping so some people can get cooler heads and maybe some politicians will get some common sense for Christmas!
posted 5 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more