Will Canada have its first coalition government in History by January 1 2009?
This is now a virtual impossibility with the proroguing of parliament. There are no signs of any attempt to contest the Governor-General's decision in the next 3-4 weeks, so this can settle as No.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/harper-jean.html
Background:>
"Under this deal the Liberals would form the government, the NDP would sit in it with cabinet seats and the Bloc Quebecois would support this new NDP-Liberal coalition from outside the government," said CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife.
Category Editor Note (Nov 30): As one of our astute players has informed us, the possible Canadian coalition government would not be the first in history. The Union Government (1917-1920) was a coalition of members from various parties. However, the party ran under a single banner, and was not an official coalition of official parties, which is what the proposed coalition of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois would be.
For people not familiar with this sudden possibility in Canadian affairs, a little background. The Conservatives have a minority government with a few seats short of the 50% required to pass bills. A recent economic bill, which angered the opposition parties for various reasons, was put forward by the government. It's a special kind of vote, called a confidence vote, which triggers a collapse of the government if it fails. This triggers a decision by the Governor-General as to whether an alternative government can be formed, and if not, an election is called. The 3 main opposition parties, who together would have enough seats to form a coalition majority government, have announced that they have agreed to construct such a government if or when the bill fails.
The Conservatives have very recently removed some of the contentious issues from the bill (economic update), but the opposition parties say they will still defeat the update because it does not contain sufficient economic stimulus measures related to the current global financial crisis.
For more details:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5g2ffQ8sh8_47DOteJ8D0updkuLNw
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/546135
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081129.COALITION29/TPStory/National
Category Editor Clarification (Dec 4): An astute player has informed me that there are three possible events that might be used to settle this as a Yes. The first is the Governor-General offering government to the coalition and it being accepted. The second is any swearing in event(s) that are required. And the third involves the first sitting of Parliament with a coalition as the official government.
Because of the time-constraint in the question, this is not just a matter of when to settle, but also determines "how" to settle. To prevent arguments about such technical matters in advance, I'm ruling that the question will settle as Yes if the offer is made by the GG and accepted by the end of the year.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:47am PST
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
Thanks for time.
storekeeperathscm
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/harper-jean.html
Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:47am PST
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Predictions (42)
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