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Professional Cycling: Will a "fan" cause a rider to withdraw from a race in the professional tours?

Current forecast: 46% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 46% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Professional cycling has always been an emotional sport. Crowds often line the route in the mountains with barely enough room for the riders to pass. Even the crowd favorite Eddie Mercke was punched by a "fan" causing him to fall, break a rib and withdraw from the race, possibly costing him a sixth victory. A fan's sign cut Thor's arm a few years back, a man standing in the middle of the track to take a picture caused a rider to crash, and the list goes on and on. Now it's been suggested that a fan might intentionally cause Lance Armstrong to fall and have to withdraw. That is the ugly side of sports.What do you think? Will there be an incident causing a rider to withdraw?

CATEGORY EDITOR NOTE - As the question refers to Tours, the major races on the schedule include: The Tour Down Under in January (Australia), The Tour de Qatar and the Tour of California in Feburary, the Paris-Nice, the Tour of Normandie, the Grand Tour of Portugal and the Tour of South Africa in March, the Giro d' Italia in May then the Tour de France in July.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
46%
No
54%
Activity: H$10,910
Question suspends in 33 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 1st Sep 12:59am PDT (33 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Suspend date: Tue 1st Sep 12:59am PDT (33 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (38)

38 predictions

3 days ago
philphan1 predicted Yes (H$20 at 45%)
4 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 55%)
5 weeks ago
chuck predicted Yes (H$25 at 45%)
5 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100 at 45%)
5 weeks ago
ajerion predicted Yes (H$20 at 45%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
*Eddie Merckx (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_Merckx)
posted 5 weeks ago
  2 pippi1500
Merckx did not withdraw from the race I assume you are talking about. When he was trying to win his 6th Tour de France he was injured by the fans but he finished and placed second.
posted 5 weeks ago
how many riders? how many fans? any of the fans from NY or Philadelphia (they seem to have the worst behaved sports fans)
posted 5 weeks ago
  4 chuck
Which professional tours?
posted 5 weeks ago
  5 jtradio
I think the question is FAR too vague. Does withdraw indicate "not start" the race? or to abandon mid-race (assuming it is a stage race?)? or to crash and then be forced to give up?

Perhaps it should have been narrowed to Armstrong, since most of the hubdub is over whether he will do the tour because of french fans who he claim want his throat.
posted 5 weeks ago
  6 mrperfkt[Admin]
This is a great question, but does appear to need clarification on what races or riders would be included in the settlement details. After spending a good deal of time trying to find a valid schedule, etc., I'm going to toss this one out to the group of Category Editors and Super Users to get a consensus.

Question will be suspended temporarily until further clarification is determined.
posted 5 weeks ago
  7 mrperfkt[Admin]
Question has been unsuspended. See background information for clarifications on settlement details. If you made wagers before this clarification was made and feel that this changes the nature of the question and your wager, then please let me know and I'd be glad to cancel your wager.
posted 5 weeks ago
  8 curios
i love the professional racing and watch them on out tele great question
gone for yes
posted 5 weeks ago

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