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Will Canada have a second federal election called in 2008?

Settled as No

No second election was called.

Background:

On Nov 28th, CBC reported that the NDP, Bloc, and Liberals were working together to try and bring down the governing conservative minority. In that case, a coalition could be formed, or if one couldn't be, or was formed but failed to gain the confidence of the house, an parliament would be dissolved and an election would have to be called.
Note, an election does not have to take place before the end of the year for a 'Yes' settlement, just the setting of a date for a federal election.

Category Editor Clarification: Although the proroguing of parliament makes this much less possible (ie via a loss of a confidence vote), there is still a slim chance that an election might come from the PM. So the question will stay open until month end (Dec 25).


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
5%
No
95%
Activity: H$33,992
Settled as No on Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PST

Suspend date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Fri 28th Nov 2008 12:40pm PST by jakethesnake
Suspended Thu 4th Dec 2008 11:03am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: pending possible settlement
Unsuspended Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:34am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: The recent proroguing of parliament means that a new election would not come directly as a result of a confidence vote loss this year. However, there is still the (small) possibility that the PM might choose to call an election, so the question will remain open until the end of the month. The suspend date has been moved to match the 7-day rule that matches suspend date to expected settlement date.
Changed Description Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:34am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:34am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-12-08 23:59:00"
Suspended Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 29th Dec 2008 1:08pm PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: I think you can settle as no.
Settled as 'No' Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: No second election was called.

Suspend date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (37)

37 predictions

1 week ago
leeangelo predicted No (H$50 at 95%)
1 week ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
1 week ago
jsevigny predicted No (H$50 at 95%)
1 week ago
opie predicted No (H$50 at 95%)
2 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted No (H$20 at 95%)
more

Comments (1)

It'll be pretty impossible now with Parliament suspended until mid Jan.
posted 4 weeks ago

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