Will Canada have a second federal election called in 2008?
Settled as No
No second election was called.
Background:>
On Nov 28th, CBC reported that the NDP, Bloc, and Liberals were working together to try and bring down the governing conservative minority. In that case, a coalition could be formed, or if one couldn't be, or was formed but failed to gain the confidence of the house, an parliament would be dissolved and an election would have to be called.
Note, an election does not have to take place before the end of the year for a 'Yes' settlement, just the setting of a date for a federal election.
Category Editor Clarification: Although the proroguing of parliament makes this much less possible (ie via a loss of a confidence vote), there is still a slim chance that an election might come from the PM. So the question will stay open until month end (Dec 25).
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Will Canada have a second federal election called in 2008?
Zoom out
Forecast history, %
Settled
Activity: H$33,992
Settled as
No on Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PST
Suspend date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 25%
Action history:
Suspended Thu 4th Dec 2008 11:03am PST by
infernalmachine![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
pending possible settlement
Unsuspended Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:34am PST by
infernalmachine![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
The recent proroguing of parliament means that a new election would not come directly as a result of a confidence vote loss this year. However, there is still the (small) possibility that the PM might choose to call an election, so the question will remain open until the end of the month. The suspend date has been moved to match the 7-day rule that matches suspend date to expected settlement date.
Changed Suspend date Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:34am PST by
infernalmachine![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
was: "2008-12-08 23:59:00"
Suspended Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 29th Dec 2008 1:08pm PST by
keyeshoveden![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)

:
I think you can settle as no.
Settled as 'No' Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PST by
infernalmachine![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
No second election was called.
Suspend date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:52pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 25th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (37)
37 predictions
1 week ago
leeangelo
predicted
No (H$50 at 95%)
1 week ago
jsevigny
predicted
No (H$50 at 95%)
1 week ago
opie
predicted
No (H$50 at 95%)
more1 week ago
leeangelo
predicted
No (H$50 at 95%)
1 week ago
jsevigny
predicted
No (H$50 at 95%)
1 week ago
opie
predicted
No (H$50 at 95%)
4 weeks ago
joshgun12
predicted
No (H$66 at 92%)
4 weeks ago
aland
predicted
No (H$500 at 86%)
4 weeks ago
kdahl
predicted
Yes (H$5 at 14%)
Showing recent public predictions only
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Comments (1)
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