petefin
Gold versus the DOW. Which will shine brightest at Friday 5 December
At the close DJIA was at 8635 and Gold was 7522 which means the DJIA was ahead by 1,113
Background:
Gold closed at 815.85
For this question we use the first 4 digits of the DJIA and the whole dollar digits plus 1st decimal of the spot gold price, ie starting market is 8829 v 8158 ie DJIA has pulled out to a 671 point lead.
Will it be able to maintain this pace? Has gold been holding something in reserve? How long is a piece of string?
I've changed this question from 3 digits to 4 to give equal weighting to each price and altered the options to make the question more tradeable.
I have used CNN money for the source for the final gold price although for live tracking gold I find nymex.com better
Suspend date is midnight EST Thursday 4 Dec
Settlement details:
DJIA closing price 5 Dec 09 as quoted on <a href="http://money.cnn.com/quote">http://money.cnn.com/quote<;/a>
Settled
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DJIA ahead by more than 1000 |
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DJIA ahead by 501 - 1000 |
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DJIA ahead by 1 - 500 |
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Gold ahead by 1 - 500 |
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Gold ahead by 501 - 1000 |
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Gold ahead by more than 1000 |
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Suspend date: Thu 4th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 7th Dec 2008 6:27am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 4th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: DJIA ahead by more than 1000: 16%, DJIA ahead by 501 - 1000: 25%, DJIA ahead by 1 - 500: 23%, Gold ahead by 1 - 500: 17%, Gold ahead by 501 - 1000: 12%, Gold ahead by more than 1000: 7%
Action history:
petefin 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: show detailspetefin: DJIA 8635
Gold 7522
= DJIA ahead by 1,113
DJIA by more than 1000 wins @ 6% (sob)
With 1 hour of trading left I was going to pull in a bundle on this. Damn and blast!
bayoubear
: At the close DJIA was at 8635 and Gold was 7522 which means the DJIA was ahead by 1,113
Suspend date: Thu 4th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 7th Dec 2008 6:27am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 4th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (48)
48 predictions
shojun
predicted DJIA ahead by 501 - 1000 (H$100 at 40%)
gtown
yagami
predicted DJIA ahead by 1 - 500 (H$50 at 34%)
predicted DJIA ahead by 1 - 500 (H$20 at 34%)
deanthoreau
predicted DJIA ahead by 501 - 1000 (H$10 at 34%)
growthy
predicted DJIA ahead by 1 - 500 (H$250 at 33%)
devil_may_care
predicted DJIA ahead by 501 - 1000 (H$20 at 34%)
craig814
predicted Gold ahead by 501 - 1000 (H$20 at 5%)
goodpasture
rbrog77
bobdevineComments (0)
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