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What will the price of gold be by January 31, 2009?

Current forecast: Over $850 (71% chance4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Over $850 with a probability of 71% (down 4% in last 1 day)

The cost of an ounce of gold is a bit over $800 on NYMEX at present. It's ranged between 681 and 1031 this year. It's unlikely it will rise or fall by $50 (12.5%) in two months. But crazier things have happened this year. (In October, Merrill Lynch predicted gold could reach 1500 next year.)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

under $750
3%
$750--$850
26%
Over $850
71%
Activity: H$20,473
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 24th Jan 11:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: under $750: 10%, $750--$850: 70%, Over $850: 20%

Action history:

Created Sat 29th Nov 2008 8:42pm PST by rogerkni

Suspend date: Sat 24th Jan 11:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (45)

45 predictions

6 hours ago
bgrigore predicted $750--$850 (H$300 at 24%)
22 hours ago
inconceivable predicted $750--$850 (H$200 at 23%)
2 days ago
kennyk predicted $750--$850 (H$200 at 13%)
3 days ago
rogerkni predicted Over $850 (H$2,000 at 84%)
6 days ago
rogerkni predicted Over $850 (H$1,000 at 79%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 rogerkni
Gold is about 840 today, 12/16. It's gained about 35 since I posted this question, and seems to be in an uptrend that will take it to 860 by year-end. I think it has the ability to hold that level for a month.
posted 3 weeks ago

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