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Will Pakistan and India enter into any 'military conflict' before 2009?

Settled as No

No military conflict reported

Background:

India and Pakistan are not the best of friends. They're both heavily armed super nuclear powers with an axe to grind, and the mutual hatred doesn't exactly help.

What really doesn't help though is the current accusations, and preliminary evidence that the Mumbai attacks were full of Pakistani involvement... This doesn't mean high-level government involvement but it would appear that many of the attackers had Pakistani citizenship and some help from within the Pakistani intelligence services (ISI).

Pakistan and India have already fought wars, mainly over the territorial integrity of Indian occupied Kashmir. But will the most recent fray in relations cause more substantial conflict?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. 'Military conflict' can be defined as any military battles (land, air or sea) that occur prior to 2009 between Pakistan and India. A small skirmish say between border posts would not count, but an event the magnitude of August's Georgia crisis would count.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
5%
No
95%
Activity: H$60,716
Settled as No on last Thursday 10:11am PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: last Thursday 10:11am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 27%

Action history:

Created Sun 30th Nov 2008 10:22am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:37am PST by destry[Admin]: Supsending so date in market can be reviewed before wagers placed.
Changed Question text Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:28am PST by ryanj[Admin]: ... into any 'military conflict' before 20082009?
Unsuspended Mon 1st Dec 2008 4:28am PST by ryanj[Admin]: Apologies for confusion, put in wrong year when creating market. Date should be 2009 and has now been edited in
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested last Thursday 9:02am PST by jake: Settle as no. No news of any military conflict.
Settled as 'No' last Thursday 10:11am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: No military conflict reported

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: last Thursday 10:11am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (76)

76 predictions

1 week ago
bhooshans predicted No (H$920 at 95%)
1 week ago
engeekay2003 predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
1 week ago
tarpash predicted No (H$5,000 at 85%)
1 week ago
shareordie predicted No (H$100 at 83%)
1 week ago
ragingbull predicted No (H$100 at 80%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
Sorry for the mistake in the year, should've been 2009, but put in 2009. I've now corrected that.

Ryan
posted 5 weeks ago

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