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How far below the year end figure for 2007 of 6456.9 will the FT-SE Index close on Dec 31st 2008?

Settled as Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1)

FTSE closed its final trading session for 2008 at 4434.17, which was between 30-40% lower than its year-end close for 2007.

Background:

On December 31st 2007, the FTSE 100 Index closed at 6456.9. How far below that figure will the Index close on December 31st 2008?


Settlement details: As reported by BBC News, CNBC Europe, Bloomberg.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

More than 50% (Lower than 3,228.5)
3%
Between 40% and 50% (Between 3,874.1 and 3,228.5)
2%
Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1)
86%
Less than 30% (Higher than 4,519.8)
9%
Activity: H$16,979
Settled as Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1) on Wed 31st Dec 2008 6:36am PST

Suspend date: Tue 23rd Dec 2008 8:30am PST Settlement date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 6:36am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Dec 2008 8:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: More than 50% (Lower than 3,228.5): 50%, Between 40% and 50% (Between 3,874.1 and 3,228.5): 25%, Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1): 13%, Less than 30% (Higher than 4,519.8): 12%

Action history:

Created Sun 30th Nov 2008 1:36pm PST by harryhayfield
Suspended Tue 23rd Dec 2008 8:30am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 31st Dec 2008 5:33am PST by harryhayfield: The final closing figure was 4,434 (a drop of 31%)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7805008.stm
Settled as 'Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1)' Wed 31st Dec 2008 6:36am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: FTSE closed its final trading session for 2008 at 4434.17, which was between 30-40% lower than its year-end close for 2007.

Suspend date: Tue 23rd Dec 2008 8:30am PST Settlement date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 6:36am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Dec 2008 8:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (29)

29 predictions

2 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1) (H$2,000 at 83%)
2 weeks ago
gtown predicted Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1) (H$200 at 78%)
2 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1) (H$1,500 at 74%)
2 weeks ago
freunited predicted Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1) (H$300 at 69%)
2 weeks ago
gtown predicted Between 30% and 40% (Between 4,519,8 and 3,874.1) (H$100 at 66%)
more

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