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Will Brown call a general election before May 1st 2009?

Current forecast: 19% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 19% likely to happen (down 1% in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
19%
No
81%
Activity: H$17,320
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 1st Feb 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Sun 30th Nov 2008 3:12pm PST by joecook

Suspend date: Sun 1st Feb 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (65)

65 predictions

11 hours ago
peterwindlehill predicted No (H$250 at 81%)
14 hours ago
civilservant predicted No (H$100 at 81%)
14 hours ago
thebomberman predicted No (H$100 at 80%)
15 hours ago
whistler predicted No (H$100 at 81%)
16 hours ago
micklebring predicted No (H$20 at 81%)
more

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