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Will Hugo Chavez stay in office as long he keeps winning elections?

Settled as Yes

The referendum passed (imagine that):

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29210196/ et al.

Background:

Background: In Venezuela, a president is elected for 6 years. The maximum number of terms is 2. Hugo Chavez, the president, is planning issue a reform putting no limit on the number of terms. As long as he wins elections, he is president and can keep criticizing the US. There was one last year, but it failed.
So, will the reform pass?
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE4AT2HK20081130?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081130/Chavez_Election_081130/20081130?hub=World
I don't know when the vote is going to occur, but as soon as I find out, I'll change the suspend date.

Category Editor Clarification: Just to be clear, the title question here is more provocative headline than actual question. The actual question is about the potential passing of a reform to remove presidential term limits from the constitution.

The Fine Print:If this reform is put to a vote, then the question will settle based on the result. If the change is instituted without any voting, then it will settle as Yes (even if future elections are in doubt). If no such vote happens (assuming none of the previous situations apply), then this question will settle as No at the end of Chavez's term (around 2013, I believe).

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
27%
No
73%
Settled as Yes on Sun 15th Feb 7:11pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 15th Feb 3:30am PST
Settlement date: Sun 15th Feb 7:11pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 15th Feb 3:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Sun 30th Nov 2008 4:46pm PST by hect0r
Changed Description Mon 1st Dec 2008 12:41am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: ... end of Chavez's term (2012around 2013, I believe).
Changed Suspend date Sat 7th Feb 9:23pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-12-24 20:59:00"
Changed Suspend date Sat 7th Feb 9:38pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-02-15 04:00:00"
Changed Suspend date Sat 7th Feb 9:41pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-02-15 04:30:00"
Suspended Sun 15th Feb 3:30am PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 15th Feb 7:11pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: The referendum passed (imagine that):

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29210196/ et al.

Suspend date: Sun 15th Feb 3:30am PST
Settlement date: Sun 15th Feb 7:11pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 15th Feb 3:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (86)

40 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100 at 26%)
40 weeks ago
tbar_04 predicted No (H$100 at 66%)
40 weeks ago
blacksoapman predicted No (H$100 at 66%)
40 weeks ago
kida predicted No (H$300 at 66%)
40 weeks ago
tarpash predicted No (H$600 at 65%)

Comments (14)

  1 deanthoreau
So, becuse he criticizes the USA he shud not be PResident of Venzuela??
If the people elect him; then what business is it of ours?
I thought we liked democracies?


oooooooooooopppppppppppppppppppsssssssss thats right we only like the ones we can control and manipulate who will do whatever we say..silly me.......
posted 50 weeks ago
  2 hect0r
No. I'm just saying that he criticizes it. That's all.
I never said that he should not be president because of that.
posted 50 weeks ago
Great question hect0r!

@ dean:
At question here is the term limit rule, as defined by the Venezuelan constitution. In my opinion, he should follow the rules like any other citizen of Venezuela. He wants to change the rules, which is the point of this question.
posted 50 weeks ago
  4 deanthoreau
@notablenotics.... if you read the question, and the article hector refers to...you will see
President Chavez is seeking a constitutional reform which must be voted on and passed before this question even has a remote possibility of occuring in 2016.
If in fact the question is whether the Constitutional amendment passes that would permit a sitting president of venezuala to run for an infinite number of terms, then the question needs to be reworded.
I love the question hectOr, if I hurt your feelings i apologize.
posted 50 weeks ago
@dean:

Ok, I am trying to figure out what you are saying. Hugo assumed office in 1999. He was re-elected in 2006. The Venezuelan constitution says he can only serve two consecutive terms... so how does this come to 2016? I looked at the links provided and didn't see anything there about that year.
posted 50 weeks ago
See Article 230 of the Venezuelan Constitution for details.
posted 50 weeks ago
I've clarified the question. Hopefully it helps decide what's being asked. I'm no longer a great fan of questions that ask a big provocative question in the title, and then ask a more down to earth second question in the background, because it's too confusing. Some people will read the title as headline, and then look for the substance in the background, while others will assume the background is just commentary and the real question is the title question.

I've also noticed that when people employ this 2-question approach, there's invariably aspects of the settlement process for the question left out which can lead to real problems in settling questions. It's as if wit has vanquished clarity. As the engineers say: KISS.
posted 50 weeks ago
  8 deanthoreau
sorry 2016 was a typo he will come up for re-election in 2012. And with all the Editor notes..what cant the question just become a one step question..instead of the provacative anti Chavez slant??? (Checks to see if I am on FOX News network)
posted 50 weeks ago
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0153221920081202
Venezuela Chavez sees re-election amendment by Feb

CARACAS, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Monday said a constitutional amendment allowing him to stay in office as long as he wins elections should be ready by February 2009 at the latest.
posted 50 weeks ago
Venezuelan oil prices are now $34 a barrel. Producing 2.3 million barrels a day, down 16% from 2005, and now consuming 795,000 barrels of that, as Caracas investment banker Miguel Octavio estimated on his blog, "The Devil's Excrement," he doesn't even have enough earnings to finance imports. He's given away about 424,000 barrels of oil output, and must make do on sales of about 1 million barrels. With oil down, Chavez has entered the worst phase of the oil cycle.

The cash he used to buy elections in 2004 and 2006 is no more, and his hasty call for a new measure to end term limits — and enable him to be president for life — is pretty much a desperate effort to end any calls for accountability in the wake of the bust.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=313804515539863
posted 49 weeks ago
Chavez's stance/actions with the IMF, WTO and World Banks are enough to make me a fan for life.
posted 40 weeks ago
  12 sqlman[Admin]
I don't have a problem with Chavez criticizing the US; my problem is that Chavez may be--by all reports--clinically insane.
posted 40 weeks ago
nah....he just has a big balls and a serious love of coffee. combo's like that always confuse people.
posted 40 weeks ago
  14 tarpash
@conspiracy

How on earth could you be Hugo's "fan for life"? The man is awful and embodies everything that's wrong with illiberal democracies in the world. Take it from the Wash Post:

"For this coming vote, he has resorted to 1930s fascist tactics of fomenting insecurity -- and then rising in the polls. His supporters have thrown tear-gas bombs at the homes of opponents (and even at the Vatican mission), attacked demonstrators, and singled out opposition student leaders as Jewish, creating a climate in which a synagogue was desecrated two weeks ago."
posted 40 weeks ago

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