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Will "Guerrilla" surpass "The Motorcycle Diaries" box office opening week's UK box office sales?

Current forecast: 67% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 67% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Background on Guerrilla:
Guerrilla is a 2008 biopic about Marxist revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara directed by Steven Soderbergh and starring Benicio del Toro as Che. The film covers Guevara's attempt to foment revolution in Boliva, leading to his eventual demise. The film comprises the second half of a two part examination of Guevara's revolutionary saga, with the first part The Argentine, relating the events of the Cuban Revolution.
Both films were screened together at the 2008 Cannes Film Festival, as one four hour motion picture entitled Che. UK Release date: Feb 20, 2009

Background on Motorcycle Diaries:
The Motorcycle Diaries (2004) is a biopic about the journey and written memoir of the 23-year-old Ernesto Guevara, who would years later become internationally known as the iconic Marxist revolutionary Che Guevara. The film recounts the 1952 journey, initially by motorcycle, across South America by Guevara and his friend Alberto Granado. As the adventure centered around youthful hedonism unfolds, Guevara discovers himself transformed by his observations of the life of the impoverished indigenous peasantry. The road presents Ernesto Guevara and Alberto Granado a genuine picture of the Latin American identity. Through the characters they encounter on the road, Guevara and Granado learn the injustices the impoverished face and are exposed to people they would have never encountered in their hometown. The trip serves to expose a Latin American identity as well as explore the identity of one of its most memorable revolutionaries.

NOTE: Motorcycle Diaries made £333,368 (UK) (29 August 2004) (80 Screens)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
67%
No
33%
Activity: H$8,828
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 13th Feb 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 30th Nov 2008 7:25pm PST by tonyg
Changed Description Fri 5th Dec 2008 10:27am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... Background on Guerrilla: <br/> Guerrilla is a 2008 biopic about Marxist revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara directed by Steven Soderbergh and starring Benicio del Toro as Che. The film covers Guevara's attempt to foment revolution in Boliva, leading to his eventual demise. The film comprises the second half of a two part examination of Guevara's revolutionary saga, with the first part The Argentine, relating the events of the Cuban Revolution.<br/> Both films were screened together at the 2008 Cannes Film Festival, as one four hour motion picture entitled Che. UK Release date: Feb 20, 2009<br/> <br/> Background on Motorcycle Diaries:<br/> The Motorcycle Diaries (2004) is a biopic about the journey and written memoir of the 23-year-old Ernesto Guevara, who would years later become internationally known as the iconic Marxist revolutionary Che Guevara. The film recounts the 1952 journey, initially by motorcycle, across South America by Guevara and his friend Alberto Granado. As the adventure centered around youthful hedonism unfolds, Guevara discovers himself transformed by his observations of the life of the impoverished indigenous peasantry. The road presents Ernesto Guevara and Alberto Granado a genuine picture of the Latin American identity. Through the characters they encounter on the road, Guevara and Granado learn the injustices the impoverished face and are exposed to people they would have never encountered in their hometown. The trip serves to expose a Latin American identity as well as explore the identity of one of its most memorable revolutionaries.<br/> <br/> <b>NOTE: Motorcycle Diaries made £333,368 (UK) (29 August 2004) (80 Screens) </b>
Changed Suspend date Fri 5th Dec 2008 10:28am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2009-03-31 15:59:00"

Suspend date: Fri 13th Feb 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (17)

17 predictions

6 days ago
botch predicted Yes (H$100 at 54%)
1 week ago
horsefeathers predicted Yes (H$10 at 54%)
1 week ago
shackleford predicted Yes (H$26 at 54%)
1 week ago
natalie predicted Yes (H$50 at 54%)
1 week ago
britcox1 predicted Yes (H$50 at 53%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 mrtrent
Is this based on number of ticket sales or simply the amount of money it makes? If it's simply the amount of money then it isn't a remotely fair question as films make more nd more money each year, simply because it costs more to see them.
posted 1 week ago
  2 tonyg
Fair point buddy, although financials can be adjusted for average inflationary rise per year since the release of The Motorcycle Diaries.
posted 5 days ago

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