Which G7 economy will record the strongest growth in the first quarter of 2009?

Suspend date: Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 8th Jul 2:39pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Canada: 20%, Germany: 10%, France: 20%, UK : 10%, Italy: 10%, Japan: 15%, U.S.: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Dec 2008 9:39am PST by reuters

Suspended Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 24th May 2:02pm PST by horsefeathers: looks like canada !

http://seekingalpha.com/article/128111-2009-country-performance-bric-countries-all-in-the-black

Settlement requested Mon 6th Jul 2:27pm PST by horsefeathers: Canada (I think) http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy#gdp

Settlement requested Tue 7th Jul 9:49am PST by guibraguim: It appears to be France, with the least negative growth.

France: -1,20%
Canada: -1,38%
US: -1,46%

http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy#gdp

It's all in the graphic...just scroll the page

Settlement requested Tue 7th Jul 9:15pm PST by dieseldog: this stuff is above my pay grade. hope its helpful to you.

Canada GDP falls 5.4% in first quarter
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gLDKEepJHddgxNSoBUl1cyvwRvlg

Telefónica O2 Germany continued to stay on the growth track in the first quarter of 2009 and increased its profitability based on sustained customer growth. The operating result (OIBDA) in the months of January to March amounted to € 202 million - an increase of 24 percent compared with the same quarter of last year.
http://www.cellfanatic.com/2009/05/13/telefonica-o2-germany-continued-to-stay-on-the-growth-track-in-the-q1-2009

AFP - The French economy shrank by 1.2 percent in the first quarter, the national statistics agency said Friday, confirming it had officially entered recession despite outperforming neighbouring Germany.
http://www.france24.com/en/20090515-france-officially-hit-recession-gdp-negative-growth-economic-crisis

GDP in real terms in the first quarter of 2009 fell by 2.4 per cent compared with the previous quarter. This estimate has been revised down from last month’s estimate of -1.9 per cent. Around half of this revision comes from new data for the construction sector, and the remainder from more complete data for services. GDP is now 4.9 per cent lower than the first quarter of 2008, the largest fall on record.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

*the site loaded slow, is very confusing to me. it has a chart after it finally loads. gota scroll down a bit before theres any writing.

The Istat data shown in Table 1 indicate that, since Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Italy’s GDP fell by 4.4% in the six months between the first quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2008. This is worse than the EU-27 and Eurozone by only a few tenths of a percentage point. In

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3612


As expected, Japanese growth sunk to a nadir in the first quarter of 2009. Figures released by the Cabinet Office on Wednesday showed that GDP in real terms shrank by a vertiginous 15.7% in annualised terms in the three months through March after a 14.4% contraction in the last quarter of 2008. It was the largest plunge in growth since comparable records began in 1955. Quarter-on-quarter (q/q), growth declined 4.0% in seasonally adjusted terms following a 3.8% contraction in the three months through March.

http://www.globalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail16760.htm

WASHINGTON: With recession extending its grip on the US economy, the country witnessed wealth

erosion of USD 1.3 trillion, much more than India's GDP, in the first three months of 2009.

The Americans saw their wealth tumble to USD 50.4 trillion in January-March period against USD 51.7 trillion at the end of 2008. The total loss of USD 1.3 trillion is higher than the value of Indian economy, which is little over USD 1 trillion

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/US-sees-13-tn-wealth-erosion-in-2009/articleshow/4654672.cms

Settled as 'France' Wed 8th Jul 2:39pm PST by bayoubear: All lost ground, but France lost the least, dropping only 1.20%, compared to the next two, Canada (-1.38%) and the US (1.46%)

http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy#gdp
Check the chart at the bottom of the page

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Suspend date: Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 8th Jul 2:39pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 31st Mar 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details