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Which G7 economy will record the strongest growth in the first quarter of 2009?

Current forecast: Canada (47% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Canada with a probability of 47% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Canada had the strongest GDP growth among the Group of Seven nations in the third quarter: http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy#gdp . Which country will lead in the first quarter of 2009?


Settlement details: As reported by Reuters.com

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Canada
47%
Germany
9%
France
12%
UK
5%
Italy
7%
Japan
15%
U.S.
5%
Activity: H$13,908
Question suspends in 11 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 31st Mar 4:59pm PDT (11 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Canada: 20%, Germany: 10%, France: 20%, UK : 10%, Italy: 10%, Japan: 15%, U.S.: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Dec 2008 9:39am PST by reuters

Suspend date: Tue 31st Mar 4:59pm PDT (11 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (131)

131 predictions

4 days ago
go2thesun predicted Canada (H$50 at 47%)
6 days ago
richwill1 predicted Japan (H$100 at 15%)
1 week ago
thecastrator predicted Germany (H$50 at 8%)
1 week ago
clarky predicted Germany (H$100 at 7%)
1 week ago
cheese predicted Italy (H$20 at 7%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
If none of the countries have growth during the first quarter, then settlement will be based on the one with the least negative growth. Even though we are in a 'worldwide recession' there still may be one of these with positive growth. But just in case, it would be settled as the one who did the best.
posted 5 weeks ago
stewie, perhaps we should all join together and sing a chorus of "Canada blame it all on Canada"
posted 5 weeks ago
@Bayoubear
Thanks for answering this question after I flagged it. Take a look at the charts and heavily consider France. And to Dean...Canada has no blame.
posted 5 weeks ago

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