Created Mon 1st Dec 2008 2:31pm PST by deanthoreau

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Will Jeb Bush say he may run for President of the USA?

Market voided. With all the possible YES outcomes, the odds are set to low. The way I read this market is that in an interview, if someone asked if it was "possible" he would run in 2012 and he said yes or perhaps, then that would be enough. If I am reading this right, that standard is very low and odds would need to be much higher he would say it was possible. I think market should set higher standard, establishing a exploratory committee.

Background:

Settlement details: As reported by the Washington Post, Reuters, or New York Times. His comment must include one of the following words: consider, contemplate, possibility, perhaps, thinking to be counted as a YES for this question / For the purposes of this question a "ask me later in the years type of response will be considered a yes"

Will Jeb Bush say he may run for President of the USA?

    Yes

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Forecast history, %

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Voided

	Yes	40%
	No	60%

Voided Mon 1st Dec 2008 8:41pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (46 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Dec 2008 2:31pm PST by deanthoreau

Voided Mon 1st Dec 2008 8:41pm PST by destry: Market voided. With all the possible YES outcomes, the odds are set to low. The way I read this market is that in an interview, if someone asked if it was "possible" he would run in 2012 and he said yes or perhaps, then that would be enough. If I am reading this right, that standard is very low and odds would need to be much higher he would say it was possible. I think market should set higher standard, establishing a exploratory committee.

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Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (46 weeks to go)
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Predictions (6)

6 predictions

5 weeks ago

jenniandboys predicted No (H$250 at 61%)

5 weeks ago

lcsnor predicted Yes (H$25 at 40%)

5 weeks ago

pulloverthatasstoophat predicted No (H$100 at 60%)

5 weeks ago

growthy predicted No (H$100 at 60%)

Comments (5)

  1 pulloverthatasstoophat

I love the settlement details for this question. "His comment must include one of the following words: consider, contemplate, possibility, perhaps, thinking to be counted as a YES for this question" I guess if he just says "Yes" this question would have to be settled as No.

posted 5 weeks ago

  2 deanthoreau

yup, you got it :)

posted 5 weeks ago

  3 deanthoreau

remember the question says "will jeb say HE MAY".......coming out and saying just YES is not a may so...for this question a YES IS A NO
the bet is if u can get a straight answer from a republican/politician

posted 5 weeks ago

  4 pulloverthatasstoophat

Yeah you definitely got all your bases covered. I just find it funny that if ol' Jeb is asked if he is considering a presidential run and he simply answers "Yes" this question would be settled as no. I've never known a politician to give a straightforward answer though.

posted 5 weeks ago

  5 pulloverthatasstoophat

funny haha not funny as in odd.

posted 5 weeks ago

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