deanthoreau
Will Jeb Bush say he MAY run for President of the USA?
When people start talkin all "Maverick" this quickly after a Presidential election they usually have an eye on the key to the White House.
Will Jeb publically state he is interested/considering/ will consider a run for the White House in 2012 before the suspend date.
more info:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/01/jeb-bush-gop-setting-up-a_n_147495.html
the predidction godsvoided the first one stating: Market voided. With all the possible YES outcomes, the odds are set to low. The way I read this market is that in an interview, if someone asked if it was "possible" he would run in 2012 and he said yes or perhaps, then that would be enough. If I am reading this right, that standard is very low and odds would need to be much higher he would say it was possible. I think market should set higher standard, establishing a exploratory committee" so i adjusted the odds as per requirements .
Settlement details:
As reported by the Washington Post, Reuters, or New York Times. His comment must include one of the following words: consider, contemplate, possibility, perhaps, thinking to be counted as a YES for this question / For the purposes of this question a "ask me later in the years type of response will be considered a yes"
PLEASE UNDERSTAND: If jeb just says yes...(gives a straight answer) then that does not qualify as a yes becuase he did not say maybe....etc etc etc...and therefore the question would settle as a no....since when asked his response did ot fulfill the very specific requirements.
Similarly if he says "Not at this time, perhaps" that of course would count as a yes...
i will quote two comments from the predecessor of this question: "remember the question says "will jeb say HE MAY".......coming out and saying just YES is not a may so...for this question a YES IS A NO
the bet is if u can get a straight answer from a republican"
"Yeah you definitely got all your bases covered. I just find it funny that if ol' Jeb is asked if he is considering a presidential run and he simply answers "Yes" this question would be settled as no. I've never known a politician to give a straightforward answer though.posted 19 hours ago"
Make your prediction!
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (46 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 80%
Action history:
deanthoreau 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: show details
Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (46 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (15)
15 predictions
onedave![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$20 at 23%)
tarpash
predicted No (H$200 at 23%)
growthy
petefin
lcsnor
aland
bigken1
predicted Yes (H$50 at 80%)Comments (3)
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deanthoreau
11 settled, 26 voided
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