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What will the Reserve Bank of Australia do with the official cash rate in February?

Current forecast: Rate is cut (91% chance6%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Rate is cut with a probability of 91% (down 6% in last 1 day)

At the last RBA board meeting the cash rate was dropped by 1% to 4.25%. This is the latest in an unprecedented series of rate cuts that have seen a total of 3% slashed from the rate to take it to its lowest level since 2001.
What will the board of the RBA decide to do with the official cash rate at it's next meeting in February?


Settlement details: As announced at http://www.rba.gov.au/

 
Forecast history, %
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Rate remains unchanged
8%
Rate is increased
0%
Rate is cut
91%
Activity: H$15,461
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 2nd Feb 6pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Rate remains unchanged: 29%, Rate is increased: 1%, Rate is cut: 70%

Action history:

Created Tue 2nd Dec 2008 5:51pm PST by oppugner

Suspend date: Mon 2nd Feb 6pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (13)

13 predictions

3 hours ago
greg77 predicted Rate remains unchanged (H$300 at 5%)
4 days ago
zenjabba predicted Rate is cut (H$20 at 97%)
5 days ago
curios predicted Rate is cut (H$10,000 at 91%)
1 week ago
eric_smith predicted Rate remains unchanged (H$20 at 17%)
3 weeks ago
oz_plastics_pty_ltd predicted Rate is cut (H$100 at 80%)
more

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