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How many WTA Tour singles titles will Ana Ivanovic win in 2009?

Current forecast: Five or More (26% chance6%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Five or More with a probability of 26% (down 6% in last 1 day)

Ana Ivanovic, formerly ranked #1 in the world, has won 8 WTA Tour singles titles in her career, including three in 2008, a year in which she won her first Grand Slam singles title.

Ana Ivanovic singles titles by year:
2004: 0
2005: 1
2006: 1
2007: 3
2008: 3
2009: ??


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source and or http://www.sonyericssonwtatour.com/1/

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Zero
8%
One
12%
Two
20%
Three
20%
Four
12%
Five or More
26%
Activity: H$1,000
Question suspends in 41 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 27th Oct 9:59pm PDT (41 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Zero: 10%, One: 15%, Two: 25%, Three: 25%, Four : 15%, Five or More: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 2nd Dec 2008 7:36pm PST by sdchargers[Power User]

Suspend date: Tue 27th Oct 9:59pm PDT (41 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (1)

1 prediction

5 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted Five or More (H$1,000 at 17%)

Comments (4)

  1 cammaz
you set the initial odds with five or more as the favourite?

are you serious?

what a joke.
posted 5 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
i would have thought it was easier to put your money where your mouth is cammaz
posted 4 weeks ago
  3 cammaz
I didn't bet because this is the type of question Id be stupid to bet on.

To be honest, it's completely irrational to predict this, as Ana's 2009 season is completely unpredictable, and number of tournaments won is a complete stab in the dark.

All I'm saying is, in regards to the initial odds, five or more tournaments is a ludicrous amount to call favourite. If the options were "4 or less" and "5 or more" I would bet every penny I had on the former without a second thought, if it was worth it.

Ivanovic is just too hit and miss to know whether she will strike lucky at 1 tournmanet or 2, for example. But I can assure you, it won't be 5, or more ;)
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 cammaz
And by the way, I'm sorry, the initial odds were screwed up by the mad man that put H$1,000 on five or more, so it made it look much more likely than you set it.

I apoligise.
posted 4 weeks ago

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