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Created Tue 2nd Dec 2008 8:02pm PST by adammccormicks
All questions » Business » Economics » 

What will be the national average price of regular unleaded gasoline on Sunday, December 7th?

Settled as 1.749 and below

Price reported for Sunday was $1.716...data released at 2:56 AM EST, 12/08/08

Background:

The AAA Fuel Gauge Web Site is derived from credit card transactions at more than 85,000 stations around the country. Prices shown are combined averages of the last card swipe of the previous day. The following schedule is used for price updates:

Prices shown on Wednesday are based on the last credit card swipe at each station on Tuesday.

Prices shown on Thursday are based on the last credit card swipe at each station on Wednesday.

Prices shown on Friday are based on the last credit card swipe at each station on Thursday.

Prices shown on Saturday are based on the last credit card swipe at each station on Friday

Prices shown on Sunday are based on the last credit card swipe at each station on Saturday

Prices shown on Monday are based on the last credit card swipe at each station on Sunday.

Prices shown on Tuesdays are based on the last credit card swipe at each station on Monday.

The AAA Fuel Gauge Web Site is the most current and most accurate source of gasoline prices available.


Settlement details: Reported by fuelgaugereport.com as current regular national unleaded average at 11:59 pm.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 $1.850 and above
1%
1.825 - 1.849
1%
1.800 - 1.824
1%
1.775 - 1.799
1%
1.750 - 1.774
3%
1.749 and below
93%
Activity: H$21,169
Settled as 1.749 and below on Mon 8th Dec 2008 5:52am PST

Suspend date: Sun 7th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST Settlement date: Mon 8th Dec 2008 5:52am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 7th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: $1.850 and above: 5%, 1.825 - 1.849: 15%, 1.800 - 1.824: 30%, 1.775 - 1.799: 30%, 1.750 - 1.774: 15%, 1.749 and below: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 2nd Dec 2008 8:02pm PST by adammccormicks
Settlement requested Sat 6th Dec 2008 8:15pm PST by adammccormicks: This market should be settled today not tommorrow.
Suspended Sun 7th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as '1.749 and below' Mon 8th Dec 2008 5:52am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Price reported for Sunday was $1.716...data released at 2:56 AM EST, 12/08/08

Suspend date: Sun 7th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST Settlement date: Mon 8th Dec 2008 5:52am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 7th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (134)

134 predictions

4 weeks ago
oppugner predicted 1.749 and below (H$2,500 at 91%)
4 weeks ago
jsevigny predicted 1.749 and below (H$100 at 88%)
4 weeks ago
gtown predicted 1.749 and below (H$1,000 at 87%)
4 weeks ago
shojun predicted 1.749 and below (H$144 at 85%)
4 weeks ago
excontender predicted 1.749 and below (H$50 at 85%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 gtown
Does this mean the amount reported Sunday morning or the amount reported Monday for Sunday's sales? If this is as reported Sunday I think the suspend date needs to be moved back a day (or move the Monday prediction up a day).
posted 5 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
I would say this is for the Sunday price as reported on Monday...that way the suspension time is satisfactory...and probably the same scenario for the similar question for Monday
posted 5 weeks ago
  3 bayoubear[Admin]
Voided the Monday question as it was just too similar...this is a great weekly question. Hope to see it again!
posted 5 weeks ago
  4 buckeyetom
Just thought I would add the link to make it easier to track. Thanks for the question Adam.

http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/
posted 5 weeks ago
  5 adammccormicks
Thanks guys! I'll get the specifics right next time. I hope to make this a weekly question as I like to keep updated on the current price of gas. I changed the market for Sunday, December 14th so that it suspends at 11:59 pm on Saturday night.
posted 5 weeks ago
  6 bayoubear[Admin]
Do you want the first market for December 7 to suspend on this Saturday night? It can be done, just let me know.
posted 5 weeks ago
  7 adammccormicks
@bayoubear - Yes please! I was trying to do it myself but I could not find a way to do it. Thank you
posted 5 weeks ago
  8 gtown
The settlement details say "Reported by fuelgaugereport.com as current regular national unleaded average at 11:59 pm.", but this should really be sometime in the morning of the 7th, since they seem to update in the middle of the night (for example, today's page says "Prices updated: 12/5/2008 2:58:09 AM"). Just as long as it's been updated on the 7th I guess...
posted 4 weeks ago
  9 adammccormicks
Thank you everyone for all your help with this market. I will change the settlement date, time and range accordingly for the Sunday, December 21st market and I will not post it until after the 14th. I appriciate everyone helping me shape this!
posted 4 weeks ago
  10 buckeyetom
It's $1.737 as of 10pm mst.
posted 4 weeks ago
  11 conspiracy2riot
This is one bet I am happy to have lost.

The lowest I've saw gas here in Oregon is 1.69...when I go out today I expect it to be lower yet.
posted 4 weeks ago

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