Will Qantas merge with British airways?
Talks have ended with no merger actions taken. Although they may still work together on projects, the proposed merger will not take place, unless a new set of talks are opened at a later date. For the purposes of this question this is enough for settlement.
"December 18, 2008 - 3:56PM (Western Australian Time)
Update Talks on a possible merger between Qantas and British Airways have ended after the two airlines failed to agree on the terms of a pact.
''Despite the potential longer term benefits for Qantas and BA, the airlines have not been able to come to an agreement over the key terms of the merger, at this time,'' Qantas said in a statement.
Qantas and BA will continue to work together on their joint business between Australia and the UK and as part of the oneworld alliance, Qantas said. "
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/qantas-ends-ba-merger-talks-20081218-71ds.html
News was announced at 00:56 CST and wagers made after the announcement will be voided and refunded. Settlement time set for 00:55 CST on 12/18/08
Background:
BA is already pursuing similar discussions with Iberia, the Spanish group, and is also trying to push an alliance with the US giant American Airlines through regulatory hurdles. None of the deals is mutually exclusive and BA is hoping all will go ahead, the company said yesterday. "The total combination with Iberia, Qantas and American Airlines would create a global airline," said a spokesman. "It would provide financial strength, cost efficiencies, linked destinations and benefits for customers and shareholders."
The discussions with Qantas – which were unknown to Iberia until they were announced to the Stock Exchange yesterday – started in August at the Australian group's instigation. The proposal is for an equity swap to create a company that is dual-listed in both the UK and Australia, as a way to help overcome the considerable legal issues facing the merger of two flag-carriers from different jurisdictions.
In terms of passenger numbers or routes flown, a BA/Iberia/Qantas tie-up would be the biggest airline outside the US. In market capitalisation terms, it would also be up there with the world leaders. Qantas is worth about A$4.4bn (€2.2bn), British Airways about £1.8bn (€2.1bn), and Iberia €1.9bn – making a combined total of about €6.2bn (£5.3bn). In comparison, Lufthansa has a market cap of €4.6bn, Air France KLM of €3bn, and American Airlines about $2.2bn (€1.7bn).
On top of the regulatory issues, some sources close to the deal warn that the complexity of pursuing a three-way merger could force BA to choose between the two. Negotiations with investors could scupper the plans. "The question will come down to what proportion of the combined entity the shareholders of Iberia, BA and Qantas each get," said Mr Zonnefeld.
Read the full The Indepedent article here.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. The envisioned dual-listed merger is sufficient for settlement. May settle on a confirmed announcement of a merger.
Settled
|
|
Yes |
|
||
|
|
No |
|
Suspend date: Sat 17th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) Settlement date: Thu 18th Dec 2008 3:36am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 17th Dec 2008 10:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%
Action history:
curios
: http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=534765 curios: here is the answer hot of the press;
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/qantas-ends-ba-merger-talks-20081218-71ds.html
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Cut-off time 748 GMT, Thursday 18th
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7789077.stm
bayoubear
: Talks have ended with no merger actions taken. Although they may still work together on projects, the proposed merger will not take place, unless a new set of talks are opened at a later date. For the purposes of this question this is enough for settlement.
"December 18, 2008 - 3:56PM (Western Australian Time)
Update Talks on a possible merger between Qantas and British Airways have ended after the two airlines failed to agree on the terms of a pact.
''Despite the potential longer term benefits for Qantas and BA, the airlines have not been able to come to an agreement over the key terms of the merger, at this time,'' Qantas said in a statement.
Qantas and BA will continue to work together on their joint business between Australia and the UK and as part of the oneworld alliance, Qantas said. "
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/qantas-ends-ba-merger-talks-20081218-71ds.html
News was announced at 00:56 CST and wagers made after the announcement will be voided and refunded. Settlement time set for 00:55 CST on 12/18/08
Suspend date: Sat 17th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) Settlement date: Thu 18th Dec 2008 3:36am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 17th Dec 2008 10:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (65)
65 predictions
richiea
predicted No (H$500 at 55%)
maia
predicted No (H$2,000 at 52%)
devil_may_care
predicted No (H$300 at 49%)
predicted Yes (H$20 at 51%)
sdchargers![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$100 at 49%)
predicted Yes (H$50 at 51%)
keyeshoveden
predicted Yes (H$700 at 50%)
oppugner
predicted No (H$100 at 46%)
mrperfkt
lcsnor
valornhonor
predicted No (H$20 at 42%)
mork
pitchedoutsidelegComments (10)
What is Hubdub?
Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.
Join now or learn moreRelated News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
they are talking about having to have 49% at the moment they do both have shares in each other, that said i will say no. thanks for the request.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/can-the-qantasba-deal-fly-20081203-6qdv.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1 is not a bad read. If it goes ahead it will be interesting to see what the final structure is like to get around any potential American objection.
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=534765
"The federal government has vowed to never let Qantas fall into international hands as the flying kangaroo embarks on merger talks with British Airways."
But the talks continue and the merger may still yet occur. The government statements mean that it will be much more difficult to accomplish, but if economic conditions perhaps even they will see a need for such a move.
Another statement from the article:
"The reaction was predictably patriotic in parliament with Transport Minister Anthony Albanese promising the "national interest" would be the government's primary concern in approving any merger."
In this statement the Minister mentions the possibility of the merger getting approval.
This question is far from settled, although the merger may never occur?
Maybe a chance for wagers on both sides.
There are bilateral agreements governing the international aviation industry, under which only airlines from the departure nation are given permission to fly into another country. Australia's rules of foreign ownership, which state that an overseas airline cannot own more than 35 per cent of Qantas, and total foreign ownership cannot exceed 49 per cent, will also need to be navigated.
Because I did have a time to use to settle the question I was able to set the suspension time to when you notified me, and was able to void several late wagers.
Please log in or join to add a comment