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How many trees per person will we have in the year 2012?

Background: NASA satellites made possible for Nalini Nadkarni at Evergreen State College in Washington to estimate the number of trees on planet earth. Because they reflect sunshine in particular patterns, it’s possible for biologists to determine coverage and look at numbers. The result? Approximately 400,246,300,201 trees in the world.

But what does that mean? Well, using the latest estimates for our human population, Nadkarni calculated we ‘have‘ roughly 61 trees each. Is that adequate? Hard to say. How many trees do we each ‘use‘ in our lifetime? Just consider your dependence on paper, construction materials, firewood, toothpicks, and so on.

http://talkingscience.org/blogs/2008/11/61-trees/

How many trees per person will we have in the year 2012?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Less than 50 Trees Per Person
10%
50-54 Trees Per Person
11%
55-59 Trees Per Person
22%
60-64 Trees Per Person
29%
65-69 Trees Per Person
12%
69-73 Trees Per Person
6%
More than 73 Trees Per Person
9%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Fri 30th Dec 2011 11pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Less than 50 Trees Per Person: 8%, 50-54 Trees Per Person: 11%, 55-59 Trees Per Person: 21%, 60-64 Trees Per Person: 34%, 65-69 Trees Per Person: 13%, 69-73 Trees Per Person: 8%, More than 73 Trees Per Person: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 3rd Dec 2008 10:15am PST by growthy

Suspend date: Fri 30th Dec 2011 11pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (43)

2 weeks ago
corbelle predicted 50-54 Trees Per Person (H$50 at 11%)
6 weeks ago
corbelle predicted 55-59 Trees Per Person (H$100 at 23%)
17 weeks ago
ordinaryman predicted 55-59 Trees Per Person (H$50 at 22%)
42 weeks ago
pmk2668 predicted 55-59 Trees Per Person (H$20 at 21%)
44 weeks ago
jbr1948 predicted 55-59 Trees Per Person (H$50 at 21%)

Comments (4)

Great Q growthy! I love it, it's the kind of Q I like to pose, and don't let any haters tell you it's not "newsworthy" enough. :)
posted 50 weeks ago
  2 shadowfax
Great creative question, Thanks growthy!
posted 50 weeks ago
  3 firechild
So, the question is.... who will grow faster, the trees or the human population? Considering we destroy more of them than they do us, it seems pretty obvious =) Although who knows what might happen to the human population by 2012??
posted 50 weeks ago
  4 bigken1
Great question growthy. I am not sure it is totally a well defined entity, except by a particular definition...---

The problem I see, of course, is that ultimate count depends upon the definition of a tree. Little sprouts growing into trees, and then most of them die, but some succeed, and where the cutoff is, where one sets the count is a problem, but hopefully these guys know what they are doing.. .

Firechild -- like your analysis, but if the trees don't grow, then the Earth warms up, and it may result in us dying --- so "they kill us" too.(in a complex sense - by not surviving our onslaughts).
posted 42 weeks ago

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