Created Wed 3rd Dec 2008 10:15am PST by 
growthy
growthy 
How many trees per person will we have in the year 2012?
Background: NASA satellites made possible for Nalini Nadkarni at Evergreen State College in Washington to estimate the number of trees on planet earth. Because they reflect sunshine in particular patterns, it’s possible for biologists to determine coverage and look at numbers. The result? Approximately 400,246,300,201 trees in the world.
But what does that mean? Well, using the latest estimates for our human population, Nadkarni calculated we ‘have‘ roughly 61 trees each. Is that adequate? Hard to say. How many trees do we each ‘use‘ in our lifetime? Just consider your dependence on paper, construction materials, firewood, toothpicks, and so on.
http://talkingscience.org/blogs/2008/11/61-trees/
How many trees per person will we have in the year 2012?
But what does that mean? Well, using the latest estimates for our human population, Nadkarni calculated we ‘have‘ roughly 61 trees each. Is that adequate? Hard to say. How many trees do we each ‘use‘ in our lifetime? Just consider your dependence on paper, construction materials, firewood, toothpicks, and so on.
http://talkingscience.org/blogs/2008/11/61-trees/
How many trees per person will we have in the year 2012?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Less than 50 Trees Per Person |
| ||||
| 50-54 Trees Per Person |
| ||||
| 55-59 Trees Per Person |
| ||||
| 60-64 Trees Per Person |
| ||||
| 65-69 Trees Per Person |
| ||||
| 69-73 Trees Per Person |
| ||||
| More than 73 Trees Per Person |
|
Question suspends in 2 years
- Activity: H$3,474 |
- Predictions: 43 |
Comments: 4
Suspend date: Fri 30th Dec 2011 11pm PST (2 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Less than 50 Trees Per Person: 8%, 50-54 Trees Per Person: 11%, 55-59 Trees Per Person: 21%, 60-64 Trees Per Person: 34%, 65-69 Trees Per Person: 13%, 69-73 Trees Per Person: 8%, More than 73 Trees Per Person: 5%
Action history:
Created Wed 3rd Dec 2008 10:15am PST by growthy
growthy 
Suspend date: Fri 30th Dec 2011 11pm PST (2 years to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (43)
corbelle
predicted 50-54 Trees Per Person (H$50 at 11%)
predicted 55-59 Trees Per Person (H$50 at 22%)
pmk2668
predicted 55-59 Trees Per Person (H$20 at 21%)
predicted 55-59 Trees Per Person (H$50 at 21%)Comments (4)
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The problem I see, of course, is that ultimate count depends upon the definition of a tree. Little sprouts growing into trees, and then most of them die, but some succeed, and where the cutoff is, where one sets the count is a problem, but hopefully these guys know what they are doing.. .
Firechild -- like your analysis, but if the trees don't grow, then the Earth warms up, and it may result in us dying --- so "they kill us" too.(in a complex sense - by not surviving our onslaughts).
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