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Will the Los Angeles Superior Court dismiss the criminal case brought against Roman Polanski?

Current forecast: 6% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 6% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Thirty years after admitting he had sex with a 13-year-old girl, Roman Polanski is seeking a dismissal of his criminal case. In a 239-page motion filed yesterday in Los Angeles Superior Court, the Academy Award winner alleges that a prosecutor and trial judge engaged in "repeated, unlawful and unethical misconduct." To support this claim, the 75-year-old Polanski points to the 2008 documentary "Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired," which argued that his prosecution was marred by duplicitous and unethical behavior on the part of Judge Lawrence Rittenband and David Wells, a deputy district attorney. Polanski's motion includes a fascinating probation report prepared following his guilty plea on a charge of unlawful intercourse with a minor (he famously skipped his 1978 sentencing in favor of a flight to Europe, where he remains a fugitive). Coupled with the grand jury testimony of the young victim--with whom Polanski had sex in Jack Nicholson's Los Angeles home--the probation report provides an unsettling account of Polanski's predatory behavior. The document notes that a remorseful Polanski told detectives that sex with the girl "was very spontaneous" and that, "I withdrew before climax." However, "upon the advice of his attorney, defendant did not discuss the allegations of either oral or anal intercourse." A court hearing on Polanski's dismissal motion is scheduled for January 21.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
6%
No
94%
Activity: H$945
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 21st Jan 8:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 3rd Dec 2008 1:09pm PST by johnterrell

Suspend date: Wed 21st Jan 8:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)
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Predictions (10)

10 predictions

4 weeks ago
hurricanegame predicted No (H$20 at 92%)
4 weeks ago
drkandimba predicted No (H$11 at 92%)
5 weeks ago
constable1664 predicted Yes (H$50 at 6%)
5 weeks ago
rogi predicted Yes (H$20 at 6%)
5 weeks ago
kirin predicted Yes (H$50 at 6%)
more

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