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How well (in time) did Wikipedia's users predict its 5 millionth article in English?
Current forecast: Between 4 and 7 days (27% chance
3%)
3%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Between 4 and 7 days with a probability of 27% (down 3% in last 1 day)
Wikipedia is, according to its site, "the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit". It began in 2001, and has grown ever since. English Wikipedia reached 1 million articles in 2006 and 2 million articles in 2007. Its most recent milestone was reaching 2.5 million articles on August 11, 2008 at approximately 22:29 UTC. As of today, it has 2,644,966 articles.
Wikipedia created a pool asking its users to predict when it would reach 5 million articles. The pool was closed when Wikipdia reached 2.5 million articles.
Previous pools had extremely accurate predictions. The 666,666th, millionth and two-millionth articles had a winning prediction the date of the feat. The winning prediction on article 500,000 was off by one day.
With a longer suspend time, predictions are spread out more than the previous pools. The pool is shown here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Five-million_pool
I expect that Wikipedia's average new article creation increases to about 2,000 articles per day. At that rate, the 5 millionth article should be created in late February 2012. However, most predictions are somewhat earlier.
Additional information:
http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_News#Wikipedias
Wikipedia created a pool asking its users to predict when it would reach 5 million articles. The pool was closed when Wikipdia reached 2.5 million articles.
Previous pools had extremely accurate predictions. The 666,666th, millionth and two-millionth articles had a winning prediction the date of the feat. The winning prediction on article 500,000 was off by one day.
With a longer suspend time, predictions are spread out more than the previous pools. The pool is shown here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Five-million_pool
I expect that Wikipedia's average new article creation increases to about 2,000 articles per day. At that rate, the 5 millionth article should be created in late February 2012. However, most predictions are somewhat earlier.
Additional information:
http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_News#Wikipedias
Settlement details:
As shown on en.wikipedia.org. This market will suspend when Wikipedia has 4,990,000 articles. If the winning Prediction does not specify a time, the time will be assumed to be 12:00 UTC.
Make your prediction!
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Same day |
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Between 1 and 3 days |
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Between 4 and 7 days |
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Between 8 and 14 days |
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15 days or more |
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Activity: H$500
Question suspends in 3 years
Suspend date: Sun 19th Feb 2012 4pm PST (3 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Same day: 10%, Between 1 and 3 days: 25%, Between 4 and 7 days: 30%, Between 8 and 14 days: 25%, 15 days or more: 10%
Action history:
Suspend date: Sun 19th Feb 2012 4pm PST (3 years to go)
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score: 10
New Zealand Herald 3 days ago
Web 2.0 Connect The nonprofit foundation that runs Wikipedia, the popular online encyclopedia of user-contributed articles, said it has met its US$6 million ($10.23 million) fundraising goal for fiscal 2008. With about six months left in this year
score: 10
Channel 4 News 5 days ago
The non-profit foundation that runs Wikipedia, the popular online encyclopedia of user-contributed articles, said it has met its six million dollar fundraising goal for fiscal 2008. With about six months left in this year's campaign
score: 10
The Age 5 days ago
The nonprofit foundation that runs Wikipedia, the popular online encyclopedia of user-contributed articles, said Friday it has met its $6 million fundraising goal for fiscal 2008. With about six months left in this year's campaign
score: 10
Computerworld 5 days ago
(IDG News Service) The Wikimedia Foundation has raised the necessary funds to operate Wikipedia until the end of June, the nonprofit organization announced Friday. Wikimedia has received about $6.2 million since launching its fundraising campaign in
score: 10
NetworkWorld 5 days ago
The Wikimedia Foundation has raised the necessary funds to operate Wikipedia until the end of June, the nonprofit organization announced Friday. Wikimedia has received about US$6.2 million since launching its fundraising campaign in early November. More
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This market will likely suspend much earlier that February 19, 2012.
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