orlin
What will NASA announce today about MSL?
According to NASA, it will be "delayed from 2009 to 2011 because of ongoing development problems"
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0812/04msl/index2.html
Background:
Now, NASA plans a news conference at noon EST on Dec 4th with a most high level participation which points to a very important announcement about the fate of this very anticipated Mars mission of the next generation exploration.
There are already rumours and speculations about what will be announced. One is that the launch date for MSL is going to be slipped. One option that has been under consideration would be to launch MSL in 2010, park the spacecraft in a solar orbit (1 AU), do an Earth flyby in 2011, and then send it on to Mars. The additional cost for this option was estimated by NASA to be around $300 million. Another option would be to wait to launch until 2011 (directly to Mars) at a cost a few tens of millions above the cost of launching in 2010.
So, what would be announced today?
Creator's note: Question is posted under the Technology category because MSL and its tools are a result of the most cut-edging technology and it perfectly falls here.
On the other hand, I don't want to create any more questions in the Science category, because they inevitably will be voided for whatever reason and the effort to create a question would be vain. If the question is moved to the Science category, I myself will ask it to be voided and will definitely stop to create any such type of questions. If you want, call it my little personal protest.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
|
|
Launch stays for 2009 |
|
||
|
|
Launch slipped for 2010 |
|
||
|
|
Launch delayed for 2011 |
|
||
|
|
Other |
|
Suspend date: Thu 4th Dec 2008 9am PST Settlement date: Fri 5th Dec 2008 1:09am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 4th Dec 2008 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Launch stays for 2009: 20%, Launch slipped for 2010: 30%, Launch delayed for 2011: 30%, Other: 20%
Action history:
orlin orlin: Launch delayed for 2011
Announced by Dr Griifin, NASA Administrator at the news conference
http://spaceflightnow.com/
rbrog77
: Mars science laboratory delayed to 2011
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27828140/
tomg![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: According to NASA, it will be "delayed from 2009 to 2011 because of ongoing development problems"
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0812/04msl/index2.html
Suspend date: Thu 4th Dec 2008 9am PST Settlement date: Fri 5th Dec 2008 1:09am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 4th Dec 2008 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (14)
14 predictions
jettero2112
predicted Launch stays for 2009 (H$50 at 11%)
predicted Launch stays for 2009 (H$50 at 10%)
devil_may_care
predicted Launch slipped for 2010 (H$100 at 50%)
carr0tman
predicted Launch slipped for 2010 (H$50 at 49%)
boothaldo
predicted Launch slipped for 2010 (H$199 at 49%)
jenniandboys
predicted Other (H$100 at 8%)
sdchargers![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Launch stays for 2009 (H$100 at 28%)
curiosComments (2)
What is Hubdub?
Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.
Join now or learn moreRelated News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
The reason I ask is that they may make announcement about something else, even though the launch is still scheduled for 2009. Some may interpret this as question settling as "Other" even though the "Launch stays for 2009".....
I am not trying to be nit-picky, just want to know which option to wager on with given information. In press release there is no mention of change in launch schedule, and they will "assess a variety of scientific questions"
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/dec/HQ_M08-244_MSL_Update.html
This is the only MSL-related issue deserving such a public interest. The fact that in the news conference will participate the NASA administrator, Dr Griffin himself (this is not at all usual) and other high ranked NASA officials gives us a hint that will be announced something signifficant and this only can be related with the launch of the flagship mission.
If however the announcement is concerning only some major scientific discovery, then it will not be MSL-related, but Mars related (MSL is still on earth and didn't make any discovery) and thus will not fall under the "other" option and the right answer will be 'launch remains for 2009'. And if the news will be such, then the press conference would not be MSL dedicated, but only Mars dedicated.
Everything points that it will be something related with the launch of the mission and I am affraid (my personal opinion) that it will be postponned, but for how much time?
Please log in or join to add a comment