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Will Obama sign on to cluster bomb ban?

Current forecast: 46% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 46% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

With the world signing on to the cluster bomb ban left and right, the two missing players who have used the devices the most, the United States and Russia, are not adding their signatures.

Cluster bombs are one of those military weapons that are nasty as hell and any unexploded ordinance left behind is a danger to civilians. There's no question about it. Still, I do see a military use for them, but only in certain situations.

I can see cluster bombs being used to target military bases, especially airbases, and potentially even civilian airports that are being used for military flights. The question is, does the risk to civilians outweigh the benefits of a military operation?

It all depends on how and where they're used, I suppose. If you use cluster munitions as Israel did against Hezbollah or the U.S. has against Afghan fighters, then yes, I think they should absolutely be banned. If they're used as I spelled out above, to target large, military bases where their target is a well-defined, non-civilian area, then I'm not so sure cluster munitions are ban-worthy.

Of course, I don't think anybody expected the Bush administration to sign on to a cluster munitions ban treaty, and it really doesn't matter whether he does or not at this point. The question is whether or not President-elect Obama will sign the treaty. So far, I haven't heard anything from his camp on the issue at all, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.

http://www.ecproject.org/node/10


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
46%
No
54%
Activity: H$26,768
Question suspends in 10 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 20th Mar 6pm PDT (10 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Thu 4th Dec 2008 7:54am PST by growthy

Suspend date: Fri 20th Mar 6pm PDT (10 weeks to go)
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Predictions (71)

71 predictions

4 hours ago
linx0003 predicted No (H$50 at 54%)
1 week ago
bency predicted No (H$20 at 54%)
1 week ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$1,000 at 53%)
1 week ago
awills predicted No (H$20 at 65%)
2 weeks ago
deelilley predicted Yes (H$50 at 35%)
more

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