Created Thu 4th Dec 2008 7:54am PST by
growthy
All questions » Politics » US Politics » 
Will Obama sign on to cluster bomb ban?
Current forecast: 46% chance

Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 46% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)
With the world signing on to the cluster bomb ban left and right, the two missing players who have used the devices the most, the United States and Russia, are not adding their signatures.
Cluster bombs are one of those military weapons that are nasty as hell and any unexploded ordinance left behind is a danger to civilians. There's no question about it. Still, I do see a military use for them, but only in certain situations.
I can see cluster bombs being used to target military bases, especially airbases, and potentially even civilian airports that are being used for military flights. The question is, does the risk to civilians outweigh the benefits of a military operation?
It all depends on how and where they're used, I suppose. If you use cluster munitions as Israel did against Hezbollah or the U.S. has against Afghan fighters, then yes, I think they should absolutely be banned. If they're used as I spelled out above, to target large, military bases where their target is a well-defined, non-civilian area, then I'm not so sure cluster munitions are ban-worthy.
Of course, I don't think anybody expected the Bush administration to sign on to a cluster munitions ban treaty, and it really doesn't matter whether he does or not at this point. The question is whether or not President-elect Obama will sign the treaty. So far, I haven't heard anything from his camp on the issue at all, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.
http://www.ecproject.org/node/10
Cluster bombs are one of those military weapons that are nasty as hell and any unexploded ordinance left behind is a danger to civilians. There's no question about it. Still, I do see a military use for them, but only in certain situations.
I can see cluster bombs being used to target military bases, especially airbases, and potentially even civilian airports that are being used for military flights. The question is, does the risk to civilians outweigh the benefits of a military operation?
It all depends on how and where they're used, I suppose. If you use cluster munitions as Israel did against Hezbollah or the U.S. has against Afghan fighters, then yes, I think they should absolutely be banned. If they're used as I spelled out above, to target large, military bases where their target is a well-defined, non-civilian area, then I'm not so sure cluster munitions are ban-worthy.
Of course, I don't think anybody expected the Bush administration to sign on to a cluster munitions ban treaty, and it really doesn't matter whether he does or not at this point. The question is whether or not President-elect Obama will sign the treaty. So far, I haven't heard anything from his camp on the issue at all, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.
http://www.ecproject.org/node/10
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
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Activity: H$26,768
Question suspends in 10 weeks
Suspend date: Fri 20th Mar 6pm PDT (10 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%
Action history:
Created Thu 4th Dec 2008 7:54am PST by
growthy
Suspend date: Fri 20th Mar 6pm PDT (10 weeks to go)
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Predictions (71)
71 predictions
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score: 10
Guardian Unlimited 4 weeks ago
military and may want to avoid an early battle with the defence establishment. To overcome resistance to the cluster bomb ban, Obama should argue that signing the treaty would represent a small step toward reinstating US global credibility and good will,
score: 10
Guardian Unlimited 4 weeks ago
military and may want to avoid an early battle with the defence establishment. To overcome resistance to the cluster bomb ban, Obama should argue that signing the treaty would represent a small step toward reinstating US global credibility and good will,
score: 10
Reuters South Africa 4 weeks ago
OSLO, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Supporters of a new international treaty banning cluster bombs on Thursday urged speedy ratification so the pact can come into force next year and help rid the world of a weapon that has maimed and killed thousands. The two-day
score: 10
ABC News 4 weeks ago
Ninety-three countries signed a treaty banning cluster bombs Thursday, as diplomats accepted the wishes of victims who begged them to bar the weapons that kill and main civilians long after the conflicts end. Some of the world's top military powers
score: 10
Washington Post 4 weeks ago
OSLO, Norway -- Ninety-three countries signed a treaty banning cluster bombs Thursday, as diplomats accepted the wishes of victims who begged them to bar the weapons that kill and maim civilians long after the conflicts end. Some of the world's top
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