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Will any airport in India experience a terrorist attack by end of 2008?

Settled as No

Although threats were made no attacks occurred

Background:

New threats against at least three major Indian airports have apparently been made. Will any of them be carried out?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_INDIA_SHOOTING?SITE=MSJAD&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

MUMBAI, India (AP) -- Airports in India went on high alert Thursday following fresh attack warnings as officials said India suspects two senior leaders of a banned Pakistani militant group orchestrated the deadly Mumbai attacks.

The alert comes as Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari promised the visiting U.S. secretary of state his country would take "strong action" against any elements in his country involved in the siege.

The new alert that warned of possible airborne attacks focused on three major airports - New Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai - but security was stepped up across the country. No details about the threat were released.

"This is a warning which we have received. We are prepared as usual," India's air force chief, Fali Homi Major, told reporters Thursday...."

Note: to settle as Yes, a major news source must report any attack as being done by "terrorists" specifically. A successful attack or an attempted but thwarted (at the scene) attempt will be considered an attack. An attack on any airport in India, not just the three mentioned above, will count.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Most settlement details are noted above in Background. I will reiterate that a thwarted attempt will be considered an attack if it is attempted and thwarted at the target airport; if intelligence leads authorities to potential attackers elsewhere, where they are prevented from carrying out a planned attack, it will not count.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
7%
No
93%
Activity: H$41,175
Settled as No on Thu 1st Jan 3:54pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 3:54pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Thu 4th Dec 2008 10:07am PST by raidersin09
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 1st Jan 8:42am PST by elly: There is no such reports.
Settled as 'No' Thu 1st Jan 3:54pm PST by ryanj[Admin]: Although threats were made no attacks occurred

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 3:54pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (59)

59 predictions

1 week ago
andrewpmk predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
1 week ago
opie predicted No (H$50 at 93%)
1 week ago
rafaelbarbosa predicted Yes (H$100 at 18%)
1 week ago
atulk22 predicted No (H$100 at 82%)
1 week ago
bency predicted No (H$50 at 82%)
more

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