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Will Canada's government be defeated it's first confidence vote of 2009?

Current forecast: 32% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 32% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

With Parliament suspended until next January, the ruling conservative government has said that it will bring a budget to the house for a vote as soon as parliament resumes in the new year. The Bloc and the NDP essentially said today that there is nothing that would stop them from voting against this budget while Dion said that there would need to be 'monumental changes' not only in the budget, but in the Conservative Party as a whole. Can the Conservatives survive even one confidence vote (ie the budget) or will they go down the first day back?

The question suspends right before Parliament is set to sit in 2009


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Settlement will be on whichever confidence motion is brought forward for a vote first in 2009 no matter what it is.

 
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Yes
32%
No
68%
Activity: H$17,955
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 26th Jan 11:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Thu 4th Dec 2008 1:11pm PST by jakethesnake

Suspend date: Mon 26th Jan 11:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)
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Predictions (33)

33 predictions

1 day ago
canadianveggie predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 30%)
1 day ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted No (H$750 at 71%)
4 days ago
hippyboomer predicted No (H$5,000 at 66%)
5 days ago
ratel predicted No (H$100 at 62%)
2 weeks ago
crstals predicted Yes (H$50 at 38%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 ratel
wouldn't the first vote be the throne speach? If they pass the throne speach and fail the budgest does this question pass or fail?
posted 5 days ago

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