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Will crude oil fall below $25 per barrel in 2009?

Background: Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said. -- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acgAzpwrcUfQ&refer=home

So, will Merril's prediction pan out? Will we fall all the way below $25?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
2%
No
98%
Question suspends in 6 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 23rd Dec 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Thu 4th Dec 2008 3pm PST by pixelpaws

Suspend date: Wed 23rd Dec 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (68)

5 weeks ago
pmk2668 predicted No (H$10,000 at 97%)
5 weeks ago
vixen predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
9 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 96%)
15 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$2,000 at 94%)
15 weeks ago
exoarz predicted No (H$100 at 94%)

Comments (1)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
I was really a bit concerned with the odds on this one, but after reading the article it was based on, it does seem (as unlikely as we may think at this time) that there may be the chance that it could fall that low. I don't think OPEC will allow it, in fact I think they'll take steps pretty soon to get it back up to $60+.

Here some more from the article cited:

"Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

Global oil demand will contract in 2009 as economic growth slows to its weakest since 1982, Merrill Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch said in a report today. In October, when oil was around $100 a barrel, the bank predicted that prices may slide to $50. Crude traded at $45.30 in New York today, the lowest since February 2005.

“A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC cuts are required,” Blanch said. “In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations.”

Crude hasn’t fallen below $25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange since November 2002"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acgAzpwrcUfQ&refer=home
posted 47 weeks ago

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