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What will be the target cut in emissions announced by the Australian Government?

Settled as 5%-10%

The only hard figure released is the immediate 5% cut. (The 15% possible future target cut is conditional on the decisions made by other nations.)
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,,24801264-2,00.html

Background:

FEDERAL cabinet is finalising a cautious emissions trading scheme offering higher compensation to big trade-exposed polluters and a "soft" start in pollution-reduction targets.

With concern growing in the Rudd cabinet about the emissions trading scheme's potential to exacerbate already rising unemployment, particularly in crucial marginal regional seats, the target range for the regime to be released on Monday week is widely expected to be between 5 per cent and 15 per cent by 2020. But the emissions trading white paper will tie Australian emissions reduction targets to the ambition of next year's Copenhagen agreement on cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

<a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24753629-11949,00.html">http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24753629-11949,00.html<;/a>


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

0.1%-4.99%
1%
5%-10%
67%
10.1%-15%
25%
More than 15.1%
6%
Activity: H$12,044
Settled as 5%-10% on Mon 15th Dec 2008 11:18pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 2008 4am PST Settlement date: Mon 15th Dec 2008 11:18pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 14th Dec 2008 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0.1%-4.99%: 4%, 5%-10%: 46%, 10.1%-15%: 46%, More than 15.1%: 4%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Dec 2008 3:57am PST by australiavotes
Suspended Sun 14th Dec 2008 4am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:12pm PST by australiavotes: 5-10%

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24801227-601,00.html
Settlement requested Mon 15th Dec 2008 3:44pm PST by australiavotes: A different link might explain it better. Basically the cut is 5% but if every other country signs up to a higher cut then it may be raised to as high as 15%. For the purpose of settling this question the announced cut is 5%

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,,24801264-2,00.html
Settled as '5%-10%' Mon 15th Dec 2008 11:18pm PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: The only hard figure released is the immediate 5% cut. (The 15% possible future target cut is conditional on the decisions made by other nations.)
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,,24801264-2,00.html

Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 2008 4am PST Settlement date: Mon 15th Dec 2008 11:18pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 14th Dec 2008 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (15)

15 predictions

3 weeks ago
australiavotes predicted More than 15.1% (H$100 at 15%)
3 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted More than 15.1% (H$500 at 10%)
4 weeks ago
gtown predicted 10.1%-15% (H$10 at 73%)
4 weeks ago
kirin predicted 5%-10% (H$50 at 18%)
4 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted More than 15.1% (H$200 at 4%)
more

Comments (1)

Just heard on the news the cut is "at least 5% when a Carbon Reduction Scheme comes into force, more if other countries join in" This was just announced 1 minute ago so there's no news article yet. Will settle as 5-10% as it was about the announcement.
posted 3 weeks ago

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