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Where will President Obama's first foreign visit be?

Current forecast: Europe (34% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Europe with a probability of 34% (down 1% in last 1 day)

The hubdub market forecasting when Obama's first foreign visit will occur is here:

http://www.hubdub.com/m22047/When_will_President_Obama_make_his_first_visit_to_a_foreign_country

Where will Obama's first foreign visit take him?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

North America
12%
South America
3%
Europe
34%
Middle East
31%
Asia
7%
Other
13%
Activity: H$12,711
Question suspends in 51 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: North America: 25%, South America: 12%, Europe: 25%, Middle East: 14%, Asia: 12%, Other: 12%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Dec 2008 6am PST by carnacthemagnificent

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (66)

66 predictions

4 days ago
fellcolor predicted Asia (H$200 at 5%)
4 days ago
fellcolor predicted Other (H$400 at 10%)
1 week ago
jazzcl07 predicted Middle East (H$20 at 32%)
3 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted Asia (H$15 at 4%)
3 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted Middle East (H$55 at 33%)
more

Comments (7)

Obama must step foot on foreign soil. A trip where, say, Obama lands on an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf and declares "mission accomplished" will not count for settlement purposes.
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 lcsnor
This is after inauguration - right?
posted 4 weeks ago
@lcsnor: yes
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 thisson
I'm guessing he goes to Afghanistan for Xmas to visit the troops. So I'm picking Asia!
posted 4 weeks ago
  5 emmag
Please differentiate "Asia" and "Middle East"
posted 4 weeks ago
For the purposes of settlement, "Middle East" is any country listed here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East#Territories_and_regions

(Afghanistan is not considered "Middle East")
posted 4 weeks ago
Oops. I hit submit too soon.

From the wiki article, let's categorize the countries listed there as "Greater Middle East" as Asia (Afghanistan and Pakistan) and Africa (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan).
posted 4 weeks ago

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