Created Sat 6th Dec 2008 5:37am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$153,374)

Congress - How many "Yes" votes will be cast in the House for the Big 3 auto bailout?

Settled as 218 to 290

Background: The latest Labor Department unemployment report stating that over a half a million jobs were lost in the U.S. in November may provoke the House to pass a "rescue" bill as large as $34 billion for Detroit's "Big 3" automakers.

Of the the potential 435 votes in the House of Representatives how many "aye" votes will be cast for an automaker bailout bill before Sunday, December 14, 2008?

For settlement purposes, a car maker rescue bill must be brought to a vote before the settlement date, or else this question settles as "zero."

Note: 145 is one-third of 435; 217 is one less than the majority (1/2) needed to pass the bill; 290 is two-thirds of 435.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Zero (includes no vote on legislation)

1 to 144

145 to 217

27%

218 to 290

45%

More than 290

14%

Settled as 218 to 290 on Thu 11th Dec 2008 12:19pm PST

Activity: H$18,355
Predictions: 10
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Thu 11th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 11th Dec 2008 12:19pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 10th Dec 2008 7pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Zero (includes no vote on legislation): 10%, 1 to 144: 5%, 145 to 217: 30%, 218 to 290: 50%, More than 290: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 6th Dec 2008 5:37am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$153,374)

Changed Description Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:14am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: show details

... Detroit's "Big 3" automakers~~. <~~. Of the the ... before Sunday, December 14, 2008~~? <~~? For settlement purposes, ... this question settles as "zero~~." <~~." Note: 145 is

Changed Suspend date Sat 6th Dec 2008 7:14am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: was: "2008-12-14 20:59:00"

Settlement requested Wed 10th Dec 2008 10:46pm PST by

oppugner Level 14, Prophet (H$113,165)

: it passed 237 to 170
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/world/house-approves-auto-industry-bailout/2008/12/11/1228584992468.html

Suspended Thu 11th Dec 2008 5:17am PST by

destry [Admin]

Settled as '218 to 290' Thu 11th Dec 2008 12:19pm PST by

destry [Admin]

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Predictions (10)

49 weeks ago

lola

predicted 218 to 290 (H$8,000 at 70%)

49 weeks ago

blondeejoy Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,297)

predicted 218 to 290 (H$50 at 44%)

49 weeks ago

ryanj

predicted 218 to 290 (H$200 at 41%)

49 weeks ago

jpkoester1 Level 14, Prophet (H$111,433)

predicted Zero (includes no vote on legislation) (H$100 at 18%)

49 weeks ago

bout3fitty Level 15, Seer (H$376,255)

predicted More than 290 (H$500 at 8%)

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