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Will the cheapest iPhone cost less than a barrel of oil at the end of 2009?

Question created by
Background: If Apple slashes the price of an entry-level iPhone and the global economy recovers enough to drive oil prices back up, it's possible an iPhone could cost less than a barrel of crude by the end of 2009.

Settlement details:Oil price is benchmark U.S. crude quoted here http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=US@CL.1 . The iPhone price is the cheapest price on the Apple U.S. online store. We'll use the most widely available outlet if Apple stops selling iPhones directly.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
5%
No
95%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Sun 7th Dec 2008 7:23am PST by reuters

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (115)

4 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted No (H$1,000 at 86%)
5 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted Yes (H$500 at 14%)
5 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted No (H$10,000 at 83%)
6 weeks ago
tomrcraver predicted No (H$100 at 78%)
10 weeks ago
burnsy2023 predicted No (H$100 at 78%)

Comments (1)

  1 autotom
very interesting question..

I don't think its fair to ask how much the iphone costs, you can get it for 'free' in australia on a 24 month contract..

nevertheless i'd say it will be $99 on a plan in the US by the end of 2009 without doubt.. i'm hearing oil is expected to remain under $40 for a very long time
posted 49 weeks ago

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