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Will an earthquake with magnitude 6 or larger hit the Japanese islands before April 1 2009?

Settled as No

No news by suspend date.

Background:

Background: 4 December - TOKYO (AP) — A 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of northern Japan on Thursday, the Meteorological Agency said. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties. The quake hit Thursday morning off the coast of Miyagi, about 180 miles (290 kilometers) north of Tokyo, the agency said. It struck at a depth of about six miles (10 kilometers). The agency said there was no danger of a tsunami from the earthquake.

Masakazu Murakami, an official in charge of disaster management in Miyagi, said the quake caused no damage to utilities such as water, electricity, gas and telephone lines. "I was in the office when the quake hit this morning. But I did not feel any tremors," Murakami said. A police official in Miyagi said authorities there had not received any reports of damage or casualties. The official spoke on condition of anonymity, citing department policy.

Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries. The most recent major quake in Japan killed more than 6,400 people in the western port city of Kobe in January 1995. Experts believe Tokyo has a 90 percent chance of being hit by a major quake over the next 50 years.

Category Editor Clarification
Only earthquakes which occur after the time of creation of this question may be used for settlement purposes.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source or the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The center of the quake must be located within the land and ocean borders of Japan.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
0%
No
100%
Settled as No on Wed 1st Apr 2009 1:21pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 1st Apr 2009 1pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Apr 2009 1:21pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Apr 2009 1pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Sun 7th Dec 2008 3:16pm PST by fundo
Suspended Thu 26th Mar 2009 1:53pm PST by tisha[Admin]: checking question
Unsuspended Thu 26th Mar 2009 2:54pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Settlement requested Wed 1st Apr 2009 12:51pm PST by aed71: Suspend date obviously is set too late. Question still open, though target date has been reached for lots of hours already...
Suspended Wed 1st Apr 2009 1pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Wed 1st Apr 2009 1:21pm PST by tisha[Admin]: No news by suspend date.

Suspend date: Wed 1st Apr 2009 1pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Apr 2009 1:21pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Apr 2009 1pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (284)

50 weeks ago
shackleford predicted No (H$511 at 99%)
50 weeks ago
cxjohnson predicted No (H$20 at 99%)
50 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted No (H$2,800 at 98%)
50 weeks ago
bintulubabe predicted No (H$143 at 96%)
50 weeks ago
madbuns predicted No (H$61 at 96%)

Comments (18)

The question was created on pearl Harbor Day so I sense that there is something about to pop. Nobody rocks your life like Mother Nature.
posted 1 year ago
  2 sqlman[Admin]
Let's see...there are about 120 6.0 or larger quakes every year around the world, or about 10 per month. With three months left before this market settles, that means about 30 or so of them should still occur. Given that Japan is the second most seismically-active country in the world--it experiences roughly four earthquakes each day strong enough to be felt by humans--I'd say there's a really good chance of this happening.
posted 1 year ago
Just an easy reference link to use:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html#listtop
posted 1 year ago
  4 bgrigore
From what I read on USGS link above (I am no expert in this) most of strong earthquakes (over 6.0 magnitude) in Japan occur during summer. Also during last years there were some over 6.0 earthquakes in late March (1 or none per year): March 24, 2001; March 20, 2005 (also Jan 19, 2005 and another 5.5 quake in February; 2005 was a very quake-active year in Japan); March 25,2007. So, if you want to bet yes it could be wise not to cash-in too soon in late March.
posted 1 year ago
  5 sqlman[Admin]
For a nice list of Japanese earthquakes, check out the link below. Note that there have been 27 6.0 or greater earthquakes in Japan since 1/1/2000, which works out to roughly one every 3.5 months. (FWIW, there has been one in January, none in February, but five in March.)

http://tinyurl.com/ca668q
posted 1 year ago
  7 bgrigore
This one was closed 6.0 in press articles but 5.9 in reports by USGS which are refference for settlement of this question. I was waiting for this one to happen.
posted 1 year ago
  8 sqlman[Admin]
Yeah, that was close, but no cigar. It'll happen; confidence is high. :)
posted 1 year ago
Do any of you know why the Puerto Rico Region has so many earthquakes? I understand why Indonesia rocks a lot due to volcanic activity, but why Puerto Rico?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html#listtop
posted 1 year ago
  11 frogchop
I think it's a plate boundary between the Atlantic and North American plate. There's volcanism there, too, just look at Montserrat for recent activity in the region. http://www.mvo.ms/history.htm

I guess if the hurricanes don't get you, the volcanoes and earthquakes might.
posted 1 year ago
  12 bgrigore
A 6.0 earthquake "Northwest of Ryukyu Islands". I think this qualifies as "land and ocean borders of Japan". Other opinions?
In case if it qualifies as Japan we should wait to settle one or two days because the earthquake might be downgraded to a below 6.0 magnitude.
posted 51 weeks ago
  13 tisha[Admin]
Our rules about earthquakes state that "For questions which state a particular country/continental location, the earthquake must occur on land or within 12 nautical miles of the stated location." ... in which case I think the earthquake is too far offshore?
http://www.hubdub.com/public/rules#science
posted 51 weeks ago
  14 bgrigore
I agree too. Just taking advantage of the fact that the question is suspended to check other people's opinion.
posted 51 weeks ago
  15 bookie
Shurely it is now April 1st everywhere in the world (especially Japan) (as of 2.11 pm BST on April 1), I don't know if I can wait for 7 hours and 38 minutes before requesting settlement...
posted 50 weeks ago
  16 sqlman[Admin]
So I was off on my predictions by 5 lousy days:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009fbau.php

Aarrgghh.....
posted 49 weeks ago
  17 curios
  18 bgrigore
I'm just glad it didn't happen on April 1st, like a few years ago.
posted 49 weeks ago

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