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Will the U.S. unemployment rate reach 8.5 percent in 2009?

Settled as Yes

News reports were available by 8:50 AM EDT, so the question is settled as YES and suspended as of that time. Wagers made after that time are to be voided and refunded.

Unemployment rate bolts to 8.5 percent, a 25-year high
By Jeanine AversaAssociated PressPosted: 04/03/2009 05:50:53 AM PDT
WASHINGTON — Unemployment zoomed to 8.5 percent last month, the highest in a quarter-century, as employers axed 663,000 more workers and pushed the nation's jobless ranks past 13 million. The hard times were only expected to get harder — a painful 10 percent jobless rate before long.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jsanM66tszKz1zFq0LOG4XvWS7zAD97B57BO0

Background:

Question created by
Background: The unemployment rate hit 6.7 percent in November 2008. Some pundits are talking about it nearing 10 percent in 2009 although more sober assessments see it peaking at 8-8.5 percent.

Settlement details:Settles as "yes" if the national unemployment rate equals or exceeds 8.5 percent at any time in 2009, as reported by Reuters.com

 
Forecast history %
Yes
97%
No
3%
Settled as Yes on Sat 4th Apr 7:31am PST

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Sat 4th Apr 7:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 3rd Apr 4:50am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 10th Dec 2008 6:10am PST by reuters
Settlement requested Fri 3rd Apr 5:52am PST by frogchop: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090403/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy
8.5% officially today
Settlement requested Sat 4th Apr 4:25am PST by fellcolor: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0332159720090403
Suspended Sat 4th Apr 7:19am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: checking settlement info
Settled as 'Yes' Sat 4th Apr 7:31am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: News reports were available by 8:50 AM EDT, so the question is settled as YES and suspended as of that time. Wagers made after that time are to be voided and refunded.

Unemployment rate bolts to 8.5 percent, a 25-year high
By Jeanine AversaAssociated PressPosted: 04/03/2009 05:50:53 AM PDT
WASHINGTON — Unemployment zoomed to 8.5 percent last month, the highest in a quarter-century, as employers axed 663,000 more workers and pushed the nation's jobless ranks past 13 million. The hard times were only expected to get harder — a painful 10 percent jobless rate before long.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jsanM66tszKz1zFq0LOG4XvWS7zAD97B57BO0

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Sat 4th Apr 7:31am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 3rd Apr 4:50am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (225)

33 weeks ago
curios predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 100%)
33 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 100%)
33 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 100%)
33 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 100%)
33 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 100%)

Comments (12)

I'd really like to say no, but after the bloodbath of the past week, I just don't see things getting much better in the near term. Any grand economic plans implemented by the new administration will take some time to start making a difference too. With regret, I bet yes. And wonder if we should have another question for 10% unemployment...
posted 49 weeks ago
  2 reuters
Just noticed a typo in question -- should be 6.7 percent in November, not December.
posted 49 weeks ago
<fixed>
posted 49 weeks ago
  5 misterbojangles
if the december numbers are reported as over 10% does that count as 2009?
posted 43 weeks ago
Reuters says Dec was 7.2%, up from Nov 6.8% http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSWEN227520090109
posted 43 weeks ago
Obama's Stimulus Package Will Increase Unemployment
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,487425,00.html

President Obama and the Democrats’ “stimulus” package will increase the unemployment rate. The changes they propose will also make us poorer, with fewer, less productive jobs.

The most obvious explanation is the $36 billion in increased unemployment insurance benefits. Larger benefits at least for this year will encourage some people, who may be unhappy with their jobs, to be unemployed while they look for something better. Others will be a little more reluctant to take a new job when they are offered it. Unlike the rest of the “stimulus” package that is over two years, since the increased benefits are only planned for this year, the higher payments will increase unemployment this year and then start declining soon after the extension ends.

Yet, the “stimulus” package will do something else that will increase unemployment at least as much. Most of the new jobs will be for people who are currently employed. By moving money from places where it is currently being spent to places where the government wants it spent, you move the jobs also. But it takes time for people to move between jobs. That is called unemployment.

[more at the link]
posted 41 weeks ago
  8 kruijs[Power User]
anti Obama reports. published by fox. how come I am not surprised?
posted 41 weeks ago
You're not surprised because they're fair and balanced.
posted 41 weeks ago
@kruijs:

Just a comment on that label - a report is written about something that has happened. This was not a report but an opinion piece written by John R. Lott, Jr - if you notice, it was clearly labeled as that. If you have a different opinion, it would be interesting to hear it, along with the supporting data that leads you to whatever your conclusion is. However, we will have to wait for the outcome before we can have reports.
posted 41 weeks ago
  11 kruijs[Power User]
fox = fair & balanced?
then you are too, f_o_f

@nn,
I guess it should have been: ant Obama publications (more generally spoken)
but it doesn´t make a difference. fox publishing anti Obama content does not surprise me.
posted 41 weeks ago
  12 reuters
Rate is now 8.1 percent http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE52517Z20090306
posted 37 weeks ago

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