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When will commercial jets be flying on biofuel?

Background: The head of strategy development and execution for Boeing Co.'s biofuels program forecast that commercial jets will be flying on biofuel in three to five years, far less time than generally believed.

The Boeing official, Darrin Morgan, said sunflowers and jatropha are closest to being certified, with algae also holding great promise. In an interview with Wired.com, he noted that these biofuels, which will be blended with regular jet fuel, won’t require any engine modifications.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Before 2012
30%
2012
9%
2013
12%
2014
13%
2015+ or never
36%
Question suspends in 4 years

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2014 11:59pm PST (4 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before 2012: 20%, 2012: 15%, 2013: 15%, 2014: 20%, 2015+ or never: 30%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Dec 2008 6:40am PST by growthy

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2014 11:59pm PST (4 years to go) details

 

Predictions (38)

5 weeks ago
hindumuninc predicted 2013 (H$50 at 12%)
9 weeks ago
nuaetius predicted Before 2012 (H$1,000 at 22%)
9 weeks ago
clevercog predicted 2015+ or never (H$20 at 45%)
20 weeks ago
syne predicted 2015+ or never (H$50 at 41%)
35 weeks ago
neopugg predicted 2012 (H$5 at 10%)

Comments (6)

  1 chatarra
Definitely an improvement.
Add the delicious aroma of french fries to the atmosphere, instead of chem-trails.

Great - Now I will be hungry all the time.
posted 1 year ago
  2 deanthoreau
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7261214.stm

In Feb 2008 virgin Atlantic flew an airliner with biofuel as did a few others.
posted 1 year ago
Dean is right. Already been done. Also a trial flight on jatropha was scheduled by Air New Zealand last week but was cancelled because of the crash in France. jatropha looks promising. Worth a google.
posted 1 year ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
Ha - apparently Richard Branson drank some biofuel as a press stunt and nearly gagged :-) he was told he could drink it but said it tasted horrible!

The virgin flight and others, I believe, were only demonstration flights - that is, they had no paying passengers on them which would constitute a commercial flight. The 4-6 year timeframe for operating a fully commercial flight (full of paying passengers) on biofuel is about right. Is this correct?
posted 1 year ago
  5 chatarra
Successful test of passenger plane with biofuel.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7805499.stm
A passenger plane has successfully completed a two-hour test flight partly powered by vegetable oil.
Air New Zealand hailed the flight as a "milestone" in the development of sustainable fuels that could lower aeroplane emissions and cut costs.
One engine of the Boeing 747-400 was fueled by a 50-50 mixture of jatropha plant oil and standard A1 jet fuel.
posted 1 year ago
  6 clevercog
British Airways to purchase biofuel from Solena Group from 2014 onwards: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8515620.stm
posted 3 weeks ago

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