What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2009?

Wow, and I thought I was a doomer. Somebody's putting an awful lot of money on 5K-6K.

This has been a strange question for me...i have a few low $$ bets (round 250-500) but every time i cash one in it seems to move the percentages around way out of proportion with my % of the total activity. The last $500 i cashed in dropped 7000-7999 a full 10%...i dont understand logarithms.

When Cookietime speaks, E F Hutton listens. . . .

Seriously, I have never understood them either.

It might be quincidental timing. There have been some pretty heavy hitters in this market moving thousands of dollars in and out.

I would agree but it seems to happen every time - i was curious so i just took $500 out of 6000-6999 and it dropped it a full 10%. Wish i had a similar influence over the real DJIA!

Hmmmm, that would indicate that it's a small market without much in total assetts. Odd. I guess there's only a few heavy hitters with just a handful of really big bets. Why is it that some markets will show you the total $ in the market and other's don't?

This one's showing it - 110K so not a small market, although that is the total of money moved in and out over its lifespan. So maybe its seen a lot of withdrawals and deposits, with very little cash sitting in it at any given time?

On a related issue, I have quite a bit of money trapped in 7000-7999 that I think I'm about to lose....

Tell me about it. I was buying into this market several weeks ago and paying 52% on 7k dow...

what i wanna know is wheres guido? for those of you who wasn't here guido predicted dow 9,000 and nobody believed him. then he said 7,000 by december. looks like he was off a couple months..but still pretty good. guido thinks its gonna go to 6,000 before things get better if i remeber correctly.

I remember Guido. i wonder if its him that has been furtively loading up 5000-5999. His favourite quote was "the real low will surprise everyone"....I wasn't so keen on that quote, as I suspected we weren't going to be pleasantly surprised.

The hard thing is knowing what the heck to do with my real money right now. Dare I get the bit of cash I had out of the market during the plunge and try to get back in "at the bottom" to repair some of the damage, or wait it out to hit 6k, or 5k, of 4k... The amount of confidence here that it will break 7k isn't very reassuring. And if this is an event as bad as the great depression, then we're heading to under 3k in the next 18-24 months. If I don't put what cash I do have back into the market it'll take until 2015 to recover what we've lost in the last six months. Gawd I hate being an adult sometimes...

Pay off your mortgage and reduce debt I'd say...thats what we're doing anyway...that way you shouldnt lose your house if your job gets yoinked out from under you!!

Debt is one thing I've been lucky enough to avoid. My mortgage is very reasonable, but there's no chance I'd pay it off in the next year.

Here's a thought about where the market could go: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Finding-a-silver-lining-Great/story.aspx?guid=%7B08E3BCA1%2D506B%2D4A66%2D839C%2DC128CFEA6546%7D

Hello sub-3k!

I've been away a couple months, but came back in search of comments from Guido. Looks like he left an impression on at least a few of us. I thought I saved his post with his future prediction which also had the quote that cookietime stated.

here's what I could find from Guido:
"To close, here's a tip for the future....the DOW will see MUCH lower levels unimagined by anyone in the coming years, even at this point. DOW 9000 was an easy one. DOW 5000 (not this year) will be harder to swallow and that STILL probably won't finish it.posted 20 weeks ago"

Yes he certainly made a few converts on this question, which makes a very interesting read in hindsight:
www.hubdub.com/m12063/Will_the_DOW_crash_by_end_of_Oct_2008_See_below_9000_on_the_index
I wonder if he'll be back?

Wow, that's some thread! No doubt there's a reason he made imfamy here. At 11,300, that was one gutsy prediction. Paid off well for him, tho'.

I never thought I'd see the sub-4k market at a constant of roughly 10%. Now that's a sign of confidence in the market if ever I saw one.

This has to be the most erratic market on the site...my net worth graph looks like an EKG

It's a war of the heavy hitters who are convinced that the worst is here or over vs. the worst is yet to come. Considering unemployment is rising, more people going to lose their homes and cash in their 401k's just to put food on the table, there's no solution on the table to the banking crisis, and corporate earnings will continue to fall, I don't see a bottom yet. While the Dow is reasonably fairly valued for current earnings, until more people start spending and generate demand, earnings will continue to fall, and with them so go the share prices.

Its also a slow, painful process of me trying to extract my multitude of optimistic bets one at a time as the market contracts :(

Our current administration has declared war on the private sector... so far, the administration is winning.

So would a cease fire mean we stopped injecting money into Citigroup, AIG, and Bank of America?

That wouldn't be a cease fire, although it could be claimed that the massive debts we're incurring is like shooting our babies in the feet.

My comment was in reference to the current administrations animosity toward investors and businesses. The campaign trail rhetoric marches on.

The white house condemns businesses that turn a profit and sticks it to them with higher taxes at a time when we need businesses to grow. The government criticizes businesses that fail with stern warnings to change the way they operate.

The message is basically:
"Success is evil. Failure is stupid. Everyone must sacrifice... except the government"

Whenever the Messiah talks, DOW drops

Exactly Wrong on the Economy
The Obama budget plan unveiled last week is proof that the goal of the administration is not economic recovery.
The goal is an unprecedented shift of power to politicians and bureaucrats.

The U.S. Has the Second Highest Business Taxes in the World
Concentrating more power in Washington politicians and bureaucrats means government dictating what it deems are the "right" choices to individuals and businesses, rather than giving them the freedom and incentive to make their own choices.
For example, in his address to the joint session of Congress last week, the President announced his intention to punish "corporations that ship our jobs overseas."

The United States imposes the second highest business taxes of any industrialized nation in the world. While countries like Ireland tax corporations at 12.5%, and even our neighbor Canada is moving its national business tax rate to 15% (the lowest among the G-7 countries), the United States taxes businesses at a whopping 35%. And a number of states have corporate income taxes on top of that.

Inevitably, high taxes in the U.S. cause some businesses to locate some or all of their business in lower tax countries overseas.
If President Obama were serious about creating and keeping American jobs he would be thinking of ways to make companies want to bring their jobs and capital to America - and keep them here.

Americans Solutions has created 12 American Solutions for Jobs and Prosperity.
http://www.americansolutions.com/General/?Page=01607eab-e608-4f34-8ca7-367da48a1430
Our No. 3 recommendation for jobs and prosperity is for America to match Ireland's 12.5% business tax. That would do more than anything in the President's budget to accomplish his often-repeated goal of "creating and saving" American jobs.

Above text written by Newt Gingrich
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=30913

FoF, I understand where you're coming from. I see things a little differently, but I can appreciate your point of view. Personally, I'm tired of the partisan blame game. I admit I was stuck in it during the first six years of Bush, but now I'm trying to understand the complexity of issues more and try to understand where each side is coming from. Frankly, this is a mess that God himself (all jokes about Obama aside) couldn't fix. Looking back, those responsible for this mess include every president AND congress since Reagan AND the debt constructed by the Reagan era, too. For the last 20 years nobody wanted to regulate the banks, nobody wanted to regulate credit default swaps, and it was only a democratic president with a republican congress that actually created a balanced budget, but even that depended on some of the business tax policies created under Reagan and Bush.

frogchop - i agree theres enough blame to go around. people think things are bad now wait and see what happens if the cap and trade deal obama wants gets passed. talk about a job killing, tax raising, inflation causing problem..this will be the mother of all.

I just wish that at the last election the American people could have kept the pedulum from swinging so far to one side and balanced a democratic president with at least one house of the congress with a republican majority. Lord knows Bush did enough damage by having the pendulum too far to the right for six years, but moving things full-tilt to the left doesn't fix anything. Hopefully the mid-term elections will bring back the balance.

While I agree with many of Obama's ideas, without a strong opposition to refine the bills and put some fiscal responsibility behind them, it's just a continuation of an American dictatorship that started on 9-11. One man's ideas are never good enough to lead a nation. It takes a well reasoned concensus to properly run a democracy, not a nation sheep ruled by fear (whether it's terrorism or a bad economy).

I don't know who did it, but thanks! I had wagered on 7000 being the lowest, and of course as we've seen, it closed lower than that weeks ago...so that position was worthless that that point. It fell to "0" as worth. I couldn't even cash it in to remove it from my listings because it would error out as a zero. Well, someone must have wagered on 7000 recently because my position went up in value and I was able to cash out!!! LOL! Who would bet on a known loser?

Congrats on getting out! Odds are somebody didn't read the question before tossing in a bet.

That's ok, on this question, you can still cash out Feb. for 7%, or squeeze it out by betting the other options.
http://www.hubdub.com/m23885/When_will_the_next_DJIA_oneweek_win_streak_happen

rogerkni, I really appreciate the fact that you keep throwing good money after bad and keep giving me very attractive entry points to increase my winnings by the end of this year. You can temporarily mitigate your losses by throwing more money into the pot, but in the end it's where the Dow closes at the end of the year and it IS NOT going to be < 6000!
So, please keep doing it, you have been tremendous help to me!

Thanks again roger. Please keep it up, I still have 500,000 to invest on this sure bet...

Sounds like someone is going "all in"!

Hey, Rog, here is another market you may want to put some money on. http://www.hubdub.com/m46861/What_will_happen_first
The betting is overwhelmingly against the dow dropping below 7k - better straighten them out....

@ imantsdimants: if the Dow really drops to <6000, my Hubdub loss will be the least of my problems!
Luckily, the odds of that happening are slim to none.
Usually, you can't make more than a few k on any given market, since the odds quickly become such that more wagers bring diminishing returns. In this case, my new friend rogerkni keeps making the odds attractive over and over again by throwing more and more of his shrinking resources on the losing proposition. Down close to 150k for the quarter, roger is one heck of a stubborn bear....

There's plenty of room for doubt that this recovery isn't built on solid ground, but the doom that will shake the DOW below 6k isn't going to settle in until well after 2009 is done with. The new unemployment numbers are out and were better than anyone expected, the GDP is likely to turn positive in the third quarter, and over half the stimulus hasn't even been infused into the economy. On the other side, the national debt is rapidly approaching the size of the annual GDP, the fed has pumped way too much cash into this economy and set interest rates far too low to be maintained, the pains of peak oil have only just begun, and the moment the fed taps the brakes or oil gets back over $120/barrel the entire economy is going into the tank for a much longer, much harder stay. My prediction is that is at least a year away, perhaps three or four, but when it happens, we'll be wondering where the 'll the bottom is as we scream past 6k.

I don't disagree with you froggy, there are indeed more hard times ahead, though I think it will be more a case of chinese water torture than an abrupt calamity. I think we'll flounder for a long time in a trading range of 7.5 - 9 k, which is way below the highs near 15k, so bad enough, if you ask me. I just don't think the bottom will drop out this year, so I keep re-loading every time roger makes the odds attractive. Feel free to create a market asking what the low will be next year....