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What will be the highest close for the DJIA in 2009?

Background: The Dow has been falling like a rock for a while, but will it continue in 2009 or is it going to fly up to new heights?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
above 14164.53 (new record high)
0%
13000 to 14164.52
0%
12000 to 12999.99
1%
11000 to 11999.99
23%
10000 to 10999.99
76%
9000 to 9999.99
0%
below 9000
0%
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: above 14164.53 (new record high): 2%, 13000 to 14164.52: 3%, 12000 to 12999.99: 5%, 11000 to 11999.99: 10%, 10000 to 10999.99: 20%, 9000 to 9999.99: 40%, below 9000: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Dec 2008 8:31am PST by jpkoester1
Changed Question text Thu 11th Dec 2008 1:55pm PST by bayoubear[Admin]: ... close for the DJIA in 20082009?
Changed Description Fri 12th Dec 2008 6:36am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: ... to fly up to new hightsheights?

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

 

Predictions (535)

6 days ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted 10000 to 10999.99 (H$3,000 at 70%)
1 week ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 10000 to 10999.99 (H$800 at 59%)
1 week ago
maia predicted 9000 to 9999.99 (H$100 at 0%)
3 weeks ago
zvassil predicted 10000 to 10999.99 (H$1,000 at 95%)
3 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 11000 to 11999.99 (H$100 at 3%)

Comments (10)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
Question was edited to state that this is for 2009, not
2008 as it had originally stated. Suspension date was set
correctly for November 30, 2009.
posted 49 weeks ago
Great Dow question and well framed. Nice work jpk. This should do over H$1million.
posted 49 weeks ago
@bayoubear: Thanks for editing. I must have forgotten to change the title when I copied it from the 2008 question.
@petefin: Thank you as well. Will be interesting to see what the general perception of the direction is that the DOW will take in 2009
posted 49 weeks ago
  4 reuters
If you correct spelling of "heights," we'll feature on Reuters.com
posted 49 weeks ago
@reuters - Fixed! Feature away :)
posted 49 weeks ago
  6 bayoubear[Admin]
Thanks so much Jenni....
posted 49 weeks ago
I wonder if people have forgotten that in early January the DOW had closed ABOVE 9000!! It seems so long ago, but it is a matter of public record. Therefore, it puzzles me a great deal that folks are still betting on the highest close being BELOW 9000!!!! Either they are or I am missing something here.....
posted 37 weeks ago
  8 hfl13
thanks tuff - today I wondered about the past month and researched: 2nd and 6th January were above 9000

another lesson learned (H$ 2282 lost)
posted 35 weeks ago
hfl13: Easy come, easy go.....
posted 35 weeks ago
Interestingly enough, there is still 8% wagered on "below 9000". It should be 0% - that outcome has been ruled out. Curious.....
posted 34 weeks ago

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