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How much will Twilight II (New Moon) make its opening weekend?

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Background:

Background: The success of Twilight stunned many studio executives, including probably the makers of Twilight, Summit Entertainment. After its impressive opening, they immediately approved the next two films in the series, New Moon and Eclipse. However, hoping to capitalize on their base of teenage girls (with historically short attention spans), they need to turn these films over very quickly.

New Moon is already tentatively scheduled for a November 20th release, with no director, no lead actor and no script. Rumor has it that Twilight's director, Catherine Hardwicke refused to work on New Moon because of the insane release schedule Summit was demanding for the movie. It seems clear that they are looking for nice pile of money instead of a quality film. Will they get what they want? Or will negative buzz surrounding the movie effect ticket sales?

Twilight made $69,637,740 its opening weekend. Will New Moon do 20% better or worse?

This market will suspend one month before the release of the film to allow another more precise market to run closer to the release. The suspend date can move around as needed when the release date is confirmed.

Settlement details:Based on actuals released the Monday afternoon after the movie's release.

 
Forecast history %
Less than 55 million
3%
55 million to less than 70 million
4%
70 million to less than 83 million
8%
More than 83 million
86%
Film is not relased in 2009
0%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Fri 30th Oct 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Less than 55 million: 20%, 55 million to less than 70 million: 35%, 70 million to less than 83 million: 15%, More than 83 million: 10%, Film is not relased in 2009: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Dec 2008 2:47pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Suspended Fri 30th Oct 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Fri 30th Oct 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (161)

3 weeks ago
stephmoreland predicted More than 83 million (H$100 at 85%)
3 weeks ago
chull predicted 70 million to less than 83 million (H$250 at 10%)
3 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted Less than 55 million (H$500 at 3%)
3 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 55 million to less than 70 million (H$500 at 8%)
3 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 70 million to less than 83 million (H$500 at 15%)

Comments (20)

Another 20 million books will be sold by that time and that should swell the crowds somewhat. (Thanks for another Jenni Twilight question.)
posted 49 weeks ago
I can only hope it is as good as the book! I've already seen the first one 3 times!
posted 48 weeks ago
I have become a fan despite the teen slant and thought the movie was much better than the book. Look forward to taking my little sisters
posted 37 weeks ago
  4 lvnmom22
Link for preview of New Moon movie - http://www.reelzchannel.com/movie/261016/the-twilight-saga-new-moon
It looks good!!
posted 24 weeks ago
@lvn - If by "it" you mean Jacob then I completely agree! :)
posted 24 weeks ago
  6 lvnmom22
LOL - I meant the whole preview...but I also agree with you!! Looks like the animation should be pretty good!
posted 24 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
first kris now jacob poor trimath. :O(
posted 24 weeks ago
  8 lvnmom22
dieseldog - I'm sorry ....what??
posted 23 weeks ago
  9 dieseldog
ivnmom - just tormenting jenni. she has a hubby (trimath) and admitted she's in love with kris from american idle. now she has the hots for jacob. some people are just plain fickle. trimath seems to take it with a grain of salt so i'm guessing he's not the jealous type. :O)

is jacob they guy in most of the trailer or the guy at the end that comes to the girls rescue?
posted 23 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
*lvnmom
posted 23 weeks ago
  11 lvnmom22
Jacob is the tall dark haired guy that turns into a wolf at the end of the preview.
Thanks for explaining :)
ps - they are both HOT!!
posted 23 weeks ago
  12 dieseldog
lvnmom - their ok i guess. if your into guys. :O)
posted 23 weeks ago
  13 triciebird
I'm so on team jacob now. That dude is hot!!!! oh wait....is he jail bait?
posted 23 weeks ago
  14 lvnmom22
Yep he sure is!!
posted 23 weeks ago
  15 buckeyetom
I recently read at the NY Times and USA Today's websites that during the first quarter of 2009 Stephenie Myer's books accounted for 16% of all books sold by U.S. retailers. That's an incredible figure. That is almost 1 out of 5 created by one person. Opening weekend box office sales for this movie should be through the roof.
posted 20 weeks ago
  16 philculp
'Twilight: New Moon' sells out showings, breaks sales records http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox/2009/09/twilight-new-moon-sells-out-showings-breaks-sales-records.html
posted 8 weeks ago
  17 buckeyetom
Thanks for the info Phil. I feel pretty safe with my 83+ million choices then. I usually lose my butt on movie questions.
posted 8 weeks ago
  18 philculp
No Prob, my wife absolutely loves the series so she has kept me up to date, lol. She swears she's gonna see New Moon many times, lol.
posted 8 weeks ago
I have to say that I thought things were looking kinda rushed last year as they had to write, cast, film and edit the entire movie in much less than a year. Now after seeing some of the initial trailers and stills, I think there's a very solid chance that this one will be even better than the last! I'm already trying to figure out how to line up a babysitter ;)
posted 8 weeks ago
  20 buckeyetom
$72.7 million for Friday alone eclipsed The Dark Knight's single opening day record.

http://www.cbs8.com/Global/story.asp?S=11550486
posted 1 hour ago

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