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Created Sat 13th Dec 2008 6:09am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]

What will be the #1 film this weekend?

Settled as Yes Man

1. Yes Man $18,262,471
2. Seven Pounds $14,851,136
3. The Tale of Despereaux $10,103,675

Background:

Background: We're entering the mega-holiday movie holiday season, with three major releases this weekend:

Tale of Desperaux.............................Will Smith's Seven Pounds.............................Jim Carey's Yes Man


Which one will take home the big prize? Or can Kenau Reeves hold out another week over these newbies?

This refers to Dec 19-21st

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Tale of Desperaux
5%
Yes Man
81%
Seven Pounds
12%
The Day the Earth Stood Still
2%
Other
0%
Settled as Yes Man on Mon 22nd Dec 2008 12:56pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 19th Dec 2008 5:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 22nd Dec 2008 12:56pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 19th Dec 2008 5:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Tale of Desperaux: 25%, Yes Man: 25%, Seven Pounds: 35%, The Day the Earth Stood Still: 10%, Other: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 13th Dec 2008 6:09am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Changed Description Sat 13th Dec 2008 6:41am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... three major releases this weekend: <:<br/> <a href="http://www. ... /m24411/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_The_Tale_of_Despereaux_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Animated Rat, the <i>Tale of Desperaux</i></a> <><br/> <a href="http://www. ... m24410/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Seven_Pounds_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Will Smith's Oscar hope<i>Seven Pounds</>/i></a> <><br/> <a href="http://www. ... m24409/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Yes_Man_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Jim Carey's Liar, Liar remake: <i>Yes Man</i></a> <><br/> <br/> Which one will
Changed Description Sat 13th Dec 2008 6:41am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... three major releases this weekend:<br/> <br/> <a href="http://www.
Changed Description Sat 13th Dec 2008 6:43am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... Oscar hope<i>Seven Pounds>/</i></a><br/> <a href="
Changed Description Sat 13th Dec 2008 6:44am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... ">Will Smith's Oscar hope< <i>Seven Pounds</i></a><
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 3:53pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... another week over these newbies??<br/> <br/> <b>This refers to Dec 19-21st</b>
Suspended Sun 14th Dec 2008 3:53pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Unsuspended Sun 14th Dec 2008 3:54pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: The activity on this market makes me believe that some users may believe this refers to Dec 12-14 (now) and not the coming weekend Dec 19-21.

If you didn't understand that and would like your wager refunded, please flag the market with your request.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:01pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a><br/> <object width="445" height="284"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/RH9pBu3myaw&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RH9pBu3myaw&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><br/> <a href="http://www ... <i>Seven Pounds</i></a><br/> <object width="445" height="284"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/f9nn0eKwxHY&hl=en&fs=1&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f9nn0eKwxHY&hl=en&fs=1&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><br/> <a href="http://www ... : <i>Yes Man</i></a><br/> <object width="340" height="285"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/uRv4CoXQoAQ&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uRv4CoXQoAQ&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><br/> <br/> Which one will
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:04pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... , the <i>Tale of Desperaux</i></a><a href="http://www.hubdub.com/m24410/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Seven_Pounds_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Will Smith's Oscar hope <i>Seven Pounds</i></a><a href="http://www.hubdub.com/m24409/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Yes_Man_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Jim Carey's Liar, Liar remake: <i>Yes Man</i></a><br/> <object width ... 215" height="215"></embed></object><br/> <a href="http://www.hubdub.com/m24410/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Seven_Pounds_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Will Smith's Oscar hope <i>Seven Pounds</i></a><br/> <object width="445" height="284">< ... 215" height="215"></embed></object><br/> <a href="http://www.hubdub.com/m24409/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Yes_Man_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Jim Carey's Liar, Liar remake: <i>Yes Man</i></a><br/> <object width="340" height="285"><
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:04pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... ://www.hubdub.com/m24411/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_The_Tale_of_Despereaux_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Animated Rat, the <"><i>Tale of Desperaux</i></ ... /m24410/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Seven_Pounds_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Will Smith's Oscar hope <i>Seven Pounds</i></a ... /m24409/US_Box_Office__How_Much_Will_Yes_Man_Make_in_its_Opening_Weekend">Jim Carey's Liar, Liar remake: <<i>Yes Man</i></a><
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:09pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a><> <a href="http://www.hubdub. ... i></a><br/> <object width="445215" height="284215"><param name="movie" value="http ... www.youtube.com/v/RH9pBu3myaw&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1"></param><"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RH9pBu3myaw&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1" type="application/x- ... true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><object width="445215" height="284215"><param name="movie" value="http ... www.youtube.com/v/f9nn0eKwxHY&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;border=1"></param><"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f9nn0eKwxHY&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;border=1" type="application/x- ... true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><object width="340215" height="285215"><param name="movie" value="http ... www.youtube.com/v/uRv4CoXQoAQ&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1"></param><"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uRv4CoXQoAQ&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1" type="application/x- ... true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><br/> <br/> Which one
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:10pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a> <>/t<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:10pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>/t<>..........<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:10pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>..........<>..................<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:10pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>..................<>........................<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:10pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>........................<>.............................<a href="http://www.hubdub. ... <i>Seven Pounds</i></a><>...........................<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:11pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... releases this weekend:<br/> <br/> </> ............<a href="http://www.hubdub. ... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>.............................<>.......................<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:11pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... <i>Seven Pounds</i></a>...........................<>.....................<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:14pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... releases this weekend:<br/> <br/> ............</> <a href="http://www.hubdub. ... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>.......................<>..............<a href="http://www.hubdub. ... <i>Seven Pounds</i></a>.....................<>.............<a href="http://www.hubdub. ... i></a><br/> <object width="215445" height="215284"><param name="movie" value="http ... www.youtube.com/v/RH9pBu3myaw&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1"><"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RH9pBu3myaw&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1" type="application/x- ... true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><object width="215445" height="215284"><param name="movie" value="http ... www.youtube.com/v/f9nn0eKwxHY&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;border=1"><"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f9nn0eKwxHY&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;border=1" type="application/x- ... true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><object width="215340" height="215285"><param name="movie" value="http ... www.youtube.com/v/uRv4CoXQoAQ&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1"><"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uRv4CoXQoAQ&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;color1=0x402061&amp;color2=0x9461ca&amp;border=1" type="application/x- ... true" width="215" height="215"></embed></object><br/> <br/> Which one
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:14pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>..............<>....................<a href="http://www.hubdub. ... <i>Seven Pounds</i></a>.............<>.................<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Changed Description Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:15pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... >Tale of Desperaux</i></a>....................<>.............................<a href="http://www.hubdub. ... <i>Seven Pounds</i></a>.................<>.............................<a href="http://www.hubdub.
Settlement requested Sun 14th Dec 2008 5:30pm PST by veaney: Yes ! I want my 200 dollars back
Suspended Fri 19th Dec 2008 5:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 21st Dec 2008 2:22pm PST by daleo: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081221/ap_on_en_mo/box_office_5

Yes man #1
Settlement requested Sun 21st Dec 2008 8:18pm PST by jake: Settle as Yes Man.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,470715,00.html
Settlement requested Mon 22nd Dec 2008 9:38am PST by sqlman[Admin]: 'Yes Man' is the winner:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/movies/22box.html?_r=1
Settlement requested Mon 22nd Dec 2008 10:01am PST by chiumeister: hi
i am new in this process.
when will this be settled?
Settlement requested Mon 22nd Dec 2008 12pm PST by rbrog77: Yes men was 1st

Carrey's comedy "Yes Man" opened at No. 1 with $18.2 million in ticket sales, while Smith's drama "Seven Pounds" came in second with $16 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Debuting at No. 3 with $10.5 million was Matthew Broderick's animated family flick "The Tale of Despereaux."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28339804/
Settlement requested Mon 22nd Dec 2008 12:23pm PST by shojun: http://boxofficemojo.com/ now has the weekend actuals
Settled as 'Yes Man' Mon 22nd Dec 2008 12:56pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: 1. Yes Man $18,262,471
2. Seven Pounds $14,851,136
3. The Tale of Despereaux $10,103,675

Suspend date: Fri 19th Dec 2008 5:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 22nd Dec 2008 12:56pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 19th Dec 2008 5:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (365)

48 weeks ago
mrmike predicted Yes Man (H$100 at 73%)
48 weeks ago
jamesgriffin601 predicted Yes Man (H$200 at 71%)
48 weeks ago
jamesgriffin601 predicted Seven Pounds (H$100 at 17%)
48 weeks ago
greengenie predicted Seven Pounds (H$50 at 16%)
48 weeks ago
olliecat predicted Yes Man (H$50 at 72%)

Comments (20)

  1 faisal
Does anyone have the opening theater counts for the movies opening -- the count for The Day The Earth Stood Still is on movies.yahoo.com (and on BOM, from which it pulls), but you can probably calculate next week's total based on normal decay patterns for a film like this. Seven Pounds looked like it was being positioned for a Best Picture nomination, and a friend who saw it claimed it was fantastic (albeit depressing), but the number of theaters impacts revenues more than ratings do.
posted 48 weeks ago
  2 jenniandboys[Admin]
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/
Seven Pounds
Drama Sony / Columbia 2,600+
The Tale of Despereaux
Animation Universal 3,000+
Yes Man
Comedy Warner Bros. 3,400+
posted 48 weeks ago
  3 jacktheseer
Not sure if most understand this question, it is in the context of who will be the leader next week.
It is a bit confusing as it states this weekend, then later states which one will hold on.
Suspend date clarifies it a bit, should be reworded.
posted 48 weeks ago
  4 jenniandboys[Admin]
Sorry for the confusion all. The market is for next weekend -- it was created after the deadline on Friday night for movie markets for Dec 12-14 so I just "assumed" (yes I know that that means...) everyone would notice that and realize that its looking for Dec19-21st. Plus the minor detail that none of other movies are even out until then.

But I should have made that more explicit and everyone who would like their bets voided please let me know.
posted 48 weeks ago
  5 valornhonor
Jenni, I did think it was this weekend, now, and would like my wager refunded please.

Thanks,
V&H
posted 48 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
i agree with comment #4. awful nice of the admin to offer a refund do to the confusion. maybe she saw some "stars" last night. hehe i'll stick with my losing wagers. thanks for the chance for a refund tho.
posted 48 weeks ago
  7 randburg
I also thought we were talking about this weekend and knew that Earth Stood Still should be the big item this weekend. Can I please have my bet voided as well. I would never have expected it to survive in number one slot against great new competition next weekend. Thanks for your assistance.
posted 48 weeks ago
  8 randburg
@Jenni: "Plus the minor detail that none of other movies are even out until then."

Actually I follow new releases through hubdub. It's one of the many areas in which hubdub keeps us informed, and we appreciate having an expert like you follow the movies for us. Hubdub is the "entertainment section" of my life at the moment, and I depend upon you guys to tell us about new movies, sports games, people and celebrities in the news, etc. I am grateful to all of our question creators and to hubdub for giving us a platform to be better informed in our daily life. While I "google like crazy", what you tell us is THE STARTING POINT, and I depend upon you and other question creators to give us the facts and keep us informed. And I thank you for that. But please don't presume that we can see through a major mistake or omission; many of us will miss it. Thanks again.
posted 48 weeks ago
  9 jenniandboys[Admin]
Just checking... can everyone see stars on their names?
posted 48 weeks ago
  10 forever_denied
i thought it was the wrong weekend please refund my wager...
posted 48 weeks ago
  11 sqlman[Admin]
C'mon, ain't this one a lock? A 'Big Willie Weekend' is on tap again thanks to the awesome box office appeal of Mr. Smith. I mean, Jim Carrey is great and all, but he has had a difficult time carrying a movie since, oh, the 'Ace Ventura' days...and he's going up against one of The Big Boys.I guess we'll see, though...
posted 48 weeks ago
  12 conspiracy2riot
my star is gone and my page is back to normal. how long will this last?

and a word about what i found most troubling....i LIKE my predictions being in the order i've made them with newest first. this allows me to bet in 'groups' like with multiple predictions on a particular football game. i can then track what i've bet on while watching the game easier.

the 'new' way shows the margin up or down but it rearranges the order of the questions. i had to hunt and peck all over the place to find stuff.

can you guys do your new page thing but leave the order predicted the same?
posted 48 weeks ago
  13 faisal
HSX and BoxOfficeMojo are both picking Yes Man. What does Hubdub know that they don't?
posted 48 weeks ago
  14 jenniandboys[Admin]
@faisal - I agree with you. Although Smith has great box office power in any action movie this one is more "pursuit of happyness" than 'i am legend'. I think its much closer to a 20ish opening than a 40+, especially on such a family centric weekend (which should strongly favor both Carrey and the rat).
posted 48 weeks ago
  15 chiumeister
does anyone remember how a non disney or dreamworks animated feature did during a recent year end?
posted 48 weeks ago
  16 raidersin09
I agree with # 5, 6, 7, 10, etc. ... I assumed it was that weekend, and would also like my H-bucks refunded if possible.
posted 48 weeks ago
  17 sazzo
First weekend of the school xmas holidays... my money is on the cartoon!
posted 48 weeks ago
  18 sqlman[Admin]
Both 'Yes Man' and 'Seven Pounds' are expected to bring in 25-30 million...though the former is opening on 3400 screens, while the latter is on just 2700. IOW, Carrey may win overall BO, but Smith should win the per-screen handily. I guess we'll see; I plan to watch both, myself (along with 'Slumdog Millionaire', if I can find it locally)...
posted 48 weeks ago
  19 sqlman[Admin]
So it's 'Yes Man'...but barely; $18.2M domestic, about half of what was expected, though that was enough to beat Will Smith's tepid $16M. So Carrey wins overall total, while Smith wins per-screen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/movies/22box.html
posted 47 weeks ago
  20 jenniandboys[Admin]
All - I've gotten a couple of settlement requests on this one and just want to remind everyone that so far all we have are studio estimates. Although they're generally pretty accurate, we wait until actuals are released this afternoon. (Also I'm traveling this evening, so there's a chance I might not get to settle until tomorrow). If you check www.boxofficemojo.com, you can see it says "weekend estimates" when that switches to "actuals" then we're ready to settle.
posted 47 weeks ago

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