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Will a Tsunami hit South-East Asia in 2009?

Background: South-East Asia is due for a period of major earthquakes, similar to the one in 2004 off the west coast of Sumatra that caused the Boxing Day tsunami.


Scientists warn that it is highly likely that at least one such earthquake will hit the region within the lifetime of the children living there today. They base their prediction on previous earthquake evidence going back 700 years.

The 2004 tsunami was one of the most devastating natural disasters of modern times, killing more than 225,000 people in 11 countries, and was caused by an earthquake under the seabed that produced waves up to 100ft high which lashed coastlines in the Indian Ocean as far apart as Sri Lanka and Thailand.

Such undersea earthquakes raise coral reefs above sea level, which mark this vertical shift by growing outwards rather than upwards. It is this sudden change in the pattern of coral growth that has allowed the scientists to analyse previous earthquakes in the eastern Indian Ocean extending over many centuries.

Read the full article here.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. The tsunami must be caused by an earthquake, and have a maximum height of at least 2 metres.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
18%
No
82%
Question suspends in 7 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Sun 14th Dec 2008 4:55pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Settlement requested Sun 4th Jan 11:10pm PST by curios: a tsunami a tsunami no matter how small
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=706405

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (145)

2 weeks ago
dingoh predicted No (H$5,000 at 80%)
3 weeks ago
bookie predicted No (H$400 at 80%)
3 weeks ago
gc282000 predicted Yes (H$100 at 20%)
4 weeks ago
bookie predicted No (H$100 at 80%)
5 weeks ago
current predicted Yes (H$40 at 20%)

Comments (11)

Hi Lesley-
Under your settlement details it says "have a maximum height of at least 2 meters." Did you actually mean to write "A minimum height of at least 2 meters?" In other words the wave would have to be at least 6 feet or higher, correct?
posted 22 weeks ago
Sorry Tisha, I thought Lesley wrote this Q. I see now that she only sent me the challenge to answer it.
posted 22 weeks ago
  4 coolkraft
4 waves 15-20 feet ... 4 - 6 meters
posted 5 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
Tsunami alert issued for South East Asia after the quake in Indonesia
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26148364-12377,00.html
posted 5 weeks ago
http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/samoa20090929.html
Seems to me that a tsunami occurred, but they do not describe the wave height...
posted 5 weeks ago
  7 ianochaye
I have no bets on this but here is an update from Sky News:

"Also, the Disasters Emergency Committee is to launch an appeal to help victims of a series of natural disasters in south-east Asia last week.
As well as the earthquakes in western Sumatra, a typhoon has hit the Philippines and parts of Vietnam.
The day before the quakes, a tsunami in the South Pacific killed at least 170 people and left many thousands more homeless."

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Indonesia-Earthquake-Rescue-Workers-Say-Hopes-End-Of-Finding-Any-More-Survivors/Article/200910115399305?f=rss
posted 4 weeks ago
What's the word on the tsunami? There clearly was one that hit Samoa and did a lot of damage and killed quite a few people. I wish the 2m condition were not part of it to muddy the waters. Judging by the pictures of devastation, it had to be a pretty good one. Routine breakers on the beach after a summer storm hit two meters, usually don't result in dozens of casualties and wash hundreds of meters inland, so I think available evidence suggests this was a good deal bigger than 2m. Any other information out there???
posted 3 weeks ago
  9 ianochaye
Hmmm ....but now I think about it Samoa is not in SE Asia - its in Oceania .
posted 3 weeks ago
  10 tisha[Admin]
There clearly was a Tsunami to Samoa which would have met the requirements for this question, were Samoa in SE Asia and not the Pacific region.
posted 3 weeks ago
Hmm, I think you have a point. I guess it was close to SE Asia, but not close enough.
Well, there are 2 1/2 months left....
Thanks for the clarification. :-)
posted 3 weeks ago

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