Created Sun 14th Dec 2008 4:55pm PST by

tisha

Will a Tsunami hit South-East Asia in 2009?

Settled as No

There were several smaller ones, but nothing of the height specified.

Background:

Background: South-East Asia is due for a period of major earthquakes, similar to the one in 2004 off the west coast of Sumatra that caused the Boxing Day tsunami.

Scientists warn that it is highly likely that at least one such earthquake will hit the region within the lifetime of the children living there today. They base their prediction on previous earthquake evidence going back 700 years.

The 2004 tsunami was one of the most devastating natural disasters of modern times, killing more than 225,000 people in 11 countries, and was caused by an earthquake under the seabed that produced waves up to 100ft high which lashed coastlines in the Indian Ocean as far apart as Sri Lanka and Thailand.

Such undersea earthquakes raise coral reefs above sea level, which mark this vertical shift by growing outwards rather than upwards. It is this sudden change in the pattern of coral growth that has allowed the scientists to analyse previous earthquakes in the eastern Indian Ocean extending over many centuries.

Read the full article here.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. The tsunami must be caused by an earthquake, and have a maximum height of at least 2 metres.

Forecast history %

Yes

97%

Settled as No on Fri 1st Jan 8:57am PST

Activity: H$128,692
Predictions: 152
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 8:57am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Sun 14th Dec 2008 4:55pm PST by

tisha

Settlement requested Sun 4th Jan 2009 11:10pm PST by

curios: a tsunami a tsunami no matter how small
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=706405

Suspended Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 7:56am PST by

mungo10 Level 14, Prophet (H$236,425)

: Unless there is a Tsunami in the next 4 minutes (and such an approaching wave would already be in the news I think), this can be settled as "no"

Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 5:22am PST by

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$82,766)

: Year end reached.

Settled as 'No' Fri 1st Jan 8:57am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: There were several smaller ones, but nothing of the height specified.

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Predictions (152)

13 weeks ago

lcsnor Level 15, Seer (H$321,580)

predicted No (H$10,000 at 93%)

15 weeks ago

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$82,766)

predicted No (H$1,200 at 90%)

16 weeks ago

bernardo Level 15, Seer (H$355,161)

predicted No (H$1,000 at 82%)

17 weeks ago

globalfreezin Level 5, Predictor (H$1,785)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 18%)

21 weeks ago

dingoh Level 14, Prophet (H$110,121)

predicted No (H$5,000 at 80%)

Comments (11)

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,708,814)

Hi Lesley-
Under your settlement details it says "have a maximum height of at least 2 meters." Did you actually mean to write "A minimum height of at least 2 meters?" In other words the wave would have to be at least 6 feet or higher, correct?

posted 41 weeks ago

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,708,814)

Sorry Tisha, I thought Lesley wrote this Q. I see now that she only sent me the challenge to answer it.

posted 41 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$158,727)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33075304/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

fyi

posted 24 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$158,727)

4 waves 15-20 feet ... 4 - 6 meters

posted 24 weeks ago

tisha

Tsunami alert issued for South East Asia after the quake in Indonesia
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26148364-12377,00.html

posted 24 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/samoa20090929.html
Seems to me that a tsunami occurred, but they do not describe the wave height...

posted 24 weeks ago

ianochaye Level 13, Psychic (H$93,638)

I have no bets on this but here is an update from Sky News:

"Also, the Disasters Emergency Committee is to launch an appeal to help victims of a series of natural disasters in south-east Asia last week.
As well as the earthquakes in western Sumatra, a typhoon has hit the Philippines and parts of Vietnam.
The day before the quakes, a tsunami in the South Pacific killed at least 170 people and left many thousands more homeless."

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Indonesia-Earthquake-Rescue-Workers-Say-Hopes-End-Of-Finding-Any-More-Survivors/Article/200910115399305?f=rss

posted 23 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

What's the word on the tsunami? There clearly was one that hit Samoa and did a lot of damage and killed quite a few people. I wish the 2m condition were not part of it to muddy the waters. Judging by the pictures of devastation, it had to be a pretty good one. Routine breakers on the beach after a summer storm hit two meters, usually don't result in dozens of casualties and wash hundreds of meters inland, so I think available evidence suggests this was a good deal bigger than 2m. Any other information out there???

posted 23 weeks ago

ianochaye Level 13, Psychic (H$93,638)

Hmmm ....but now I think about it Samoa is not in SE Asia - its in Oceania .

posted 23 weeks ago

tisha

There clearly was a Tsunami to Samoa which would have met the requirements for this question, were Samoa in SE Asia and not the Pacific region.

posted 23 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Hmm, I think you have a point. I guess it was close to SE Asia, but not close enough.
Well, there are 2 1/2 months left....
Thanks for the clarification. :-)

posted 22 weeks ago

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