hoernla
German Federal Election 2009:What will be the percentage for FDP?
Background:
Can the Liberal party profit from the "soft" profile of the CDU/CSU during the four years of the Grand Coalition? Or will the economic crisis spoil Germans' appetite for more free-market and economic reform?
Category Editor Clarification: I'll leave the commas as is in the options, but these are to be understood as decimal points. Also, given the way the options are given, clearly this requires that the results be rounded to one figure after the decimal point. A value such as ab.950000 will round up to a(b+1).0
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
For German polls go to:
<a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/">http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/<;/a>"><a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/<;">http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/<;</a>;/a>"><a href="<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/<;">http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/<;</a>;"><a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/<;">http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/<;</a>;</a>;/a> then look for "Die Sonntagsfrage"
| What Mölli desired: FDP>18% |
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| Still a triumph: FDP 15-17.9% |
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| Close to a record: FDP 12-14,9% |
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| Good, but disappointing: FDP 9-11,9% |
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| Stagnation: FDP 6-8,9% |
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| (Almost?) desastrous: FDP <6% |
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- Activity: H$15,909 |
- Predictions: 57 |
Comments: 6
Suspend date: Sat 26th Sep 2:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 4th Nov 3pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 26th Sep 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: What Mölli desired: FDP>18%: 5%, Still a triumph: FDP 15-17.9%: 15%, Close to a record: FDP 12-14,9%: 35%, Good, but disappointing: FDP 9-11,9%: 25%, Stagnation: FDP 6-8,9%: 15%, (Almost?) desastrous: FDP <6%: 5%
Action history:
hoernla 
horatiomonty: 14.6% as per http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html
or
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,651389,00.html
pitchedoutsideleg
: 9.4%: Good but disappointing
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html
bgrigore: 14.6% the final result for FDP
The second votes are the party votes based on which the distribution of seats in Parliament is made. This is also what opinion polls measure. First votes are for constituency representatives. See it explained in the Bundestag link below.
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html
http://www.bundestag.de/htdocs_e/bundestag/plenary/elections/arithmetic/index.html
neopugg
: 14,6 %
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html
6. column
sqlman![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: 14.6%
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html
Suspend date: Sat 26th Sep 2:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 4th Nov 3pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 26th Sep 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (57)
predicted Good, but disappointing: FDP 9-11,9% (H$100 at 20%)Comments (6)
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http://www.abehnisch.com/btw09.html
Better links than these would be interesting to see some trends. Campaign for the elections should soon start. This could spice things up.
6th column: 14.6%
The German voting system is explained here http://www.bundestag.de/htdocs_e/bundestag/plenary/elections/arithmetic/index.html.
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