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Which one of these auto manufacturers will have the highest % of sales from the BRIC in 2009?

Background: The BRIC is the emerging auto markets in Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Auto sales in the BRIC are expected to be around 14m overtaking total auto sales in the USA for 2008.
Russia is expected to generate up to 3.5m in sales within the next year or so.
65% of GM's first quarter sales where from the BRIC.
65% of Fiats net income in 2007 came from the BRIC
Renault has taken a 25% in Russia's largest automaker.
Ferrari's Bentley's Mercedes and BMW's are common sights in Shanghai and Moscow.
15% of the luxury car sales are from the BRIC

Which auto manufacturer listed below will have the highest percentage of sales from the BRIC in 2009?

Settlement details:As reported by Economist Magazine

 
Forecast history %
GMC
16%
FIAT
10%
RENAULT
11%
FORD
13%
CHRYSLER
7%
MERCEDES BENZ
7%
BMW
7%
NISSAN
7%
FERRARI
7%
TOYOTA
14%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: GMC: 10%, FIAT: 10%, RENAULT: 10%, FORD: 10%, CHRYSLER: 10%, MERCEDES BENZ: 10%, BMW: 10%, NISSAN: 10%, FERRARI: 10%, TOYOTA: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 16th Dec 2008 3:14pm PST by deanthoreau

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (37)

11 weeks ago
mdad8200 predicted GMC (H$20 at 15%)
16 weeks ago
spacemonkey1229 predicted FORD (H$100 at 14%)
29 weeks ago
jank predicted TOYOTA (H$100 at 13%)
29 weeks ago
jank predicted FORD (H$100 at 12%)
29 weeks ago
jank predicted FIAT (H$100 at 10%)

Comments (3)

  1 dieseldog
dean - i see you been busy. nice bunch of questions you made...good job.
posted 48 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Dean...is there an particular article you can cite for players to access for your original data...Great questions...
posted 48 weeks ago
  3 randburg
This looks like a bunch of losers to me. The Chinese are not going to drive a Japanese car, which eliminates Toyota and Nissan. No one can afford an American vehicle, although the American Government might be giving them away soon as prizes. The French aren't influential in the countries quoted, so they will probably be unsuccessful, unlike the Renault tin cans that covered French West Africa. Ferrari is totally out of sight price-wise. Which leaves the standard well to do market for BMW and Mercedes Benz. So, either BMW or Mercedes get my vote (out of this list).

For those who are interested: T.O.Y.O.T.A. is an acronym in the Afrikaans language in South Africa, and means "tons of old steel on two axles".
posted 33 weeks ago

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