Created Fri 19th Dec 2008 7:12am PST by

harryhayfield Level 6, Player (H$2,287)

Which party will win the next UK Westminster Parliamentary by-election?

Settled as Conservatives

Chloe Smith, the victorious Conservative candidate, is only 27 years old and will be the youngest politicians in the House of Commons.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25832983-2703,00.html

Background:

Background: There have been 11 parliamentary by-elections to Westminster since 2005, which party will win the next by-elction?

Settlement details:As reported by the BBC

Forecast history %

Conservatives

67%

Labour

Liberal Democrats

Plaid Cymu

Scottish National Party

British National Party

Green Party

United Kingdom Independence Party

Another party

No by-election held / General Election

Settled as Conservatives on Fri 24th Jul 2009 4:14pm PST

Activity: H$17,147
Predictions: 48
Comments: 4

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 2009 4pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 24th Jul 2009 4:14pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 22nd Jul 2009 4pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Conservatives: 15%, Labour: 15%, Liberal Democrats: 15%, Plaid Cymu: 15%, Scottish National Party: 8%, British National Party: 8%, Green Party: 2%, United Kingdom Independence Party: 2%, Another party: 2%, No by-election held / General Election: 18%

Action history:

Created Fri 19th Dec 2008 7:12am PST by

harryhayfield Level 6, Player (H$2,287)

Settlement requested Fri 24th Jul 2009 6:29am PST by

harryhayfield Level 6, Player (H$2,287)

: The Conservatives won the Norwich North by-election on July 23rd 2009.

Settled as 'Conservatives' Fri 24th Jul 2009 4:14pm PST by

tisha

: Chloe Smith, the victorious Conservative candidate, is only 27 years old and will be the youngest politicians in the House of Commons.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25832983-2703,00.html

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Predictions (48)

34 weeks ago

ukdirector Level 2, Novice (H$1,050)

predicted Conservatives (H$50 at 81%)

34 weeks ago

pintado Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,260)

predicted Scottish National Party (H$20 at 2%)

34 weeks ago

vinnywhatever Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

predicted Conservatives (H$100 at 81%)

34 weeks ago

shackleford Level 12, Guru (H$40,811)

predicted Liberal Democrats (H$10 at 4%)

34 weeks ago

ieujam1 Level 15, Seer (H$332,540)

predicted Conservatives (H$2,714 at 74%)

Comments (4)

harryhayfield Level 6, Player (H$2,287)

The next parliamentary by-election will be held in Glasgow North East (following an announcement that "candidates are now invited to apply for the seat" following the statement that Michael Martin will stand down as Speaker of the Commons)

posted 43 weeks ago

harryhayfield Level 6, Player (H$2,287)

A reminder: Norwich North is pending as is Glasgow North East (which will formally become vacant on June 22nd).

posted 40 weeks ago

anthony2500 Level 1, Newbie (H$405)

The next UK Westminster Parlimentary By-election took place today on Thur 23rd July 2009 in Norwich North. Is this quesion going to be suspended tonight as the result is to be announced tomorrow around mid-dayish?

posted 34 weeks ago

rdsgalvao Level 7, Pro (H$3,500)

Conservatives won

posted 34 weeks ago

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